Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Forecast and Outlook of Major events for November:

Northern regions:

An effective W.D. around 20th. November will bring rain and snow to the Kashmir, H.P. and Utteranchal mountains.The plains of Punjab and Haryana could also get some rainfall with the coming of the W.D. Delhi could get its first winter rains from the W.D. after the 20th.

Temperature wise, normally the night temperatures drop at a faster rate in November, and the diurnal range is almost 15c.or more. After the middle of the month, the days will get cooler, and Srinagar may drop below freezing around the 15th of the month.

The mean minimums in Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana will be below 10c after the 15th.

West Coast:

Around the 2nd of November, a low forms in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. Most models predict a NW track. Vagaries estimates a Northerly track initially ,say up to the Karnataka coast (about 15N), and then move NW into the Arabian Sea.

Its precipitation effect will be maximum in Kerala and S.Coastal Karnataka.

Chances of another low pressure system forming in the Arabian Sea around the 12th of November seems possible. Tracking the route at this stage is not possible, as we will have to consider the meteorological factors affecting the system and their strength around that day. Even a passing W.D. could adversely change the course of a system in the seas. But, again, NW seems to be the natural course.

Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra have heated up abnormally in October, touching alsmot 40c in Gujarat. Except for a few days around the 20th of October, when night temperatures dropped in interior Mah, the clouding re-appeared, and temperatures shot up again.

Estimating the nights to go to the 15c region in interior Mah during the 1st week, and nights dropping in Gujarat after the 7th.

Mumbai's cooling now depends on the systems forming in the South Arabian sea. If the system moves as per the NW estimate, cooling is seen in Mumbai from the 5/6th.

South:

Vagaries' October forecast had estimated a "moderate to average NEM" after the setting phase.

NEM will continue to depend on "in situ" systems forming in the Bay. It seems a depression is likely to form in the South Bay around the 8th, and bound for the T.N. coast, and should cross around the 13th. Seems the entire coastal regions of T.N, South A.P. and interior T.N. will benefit. But, lets wait and see, the strength is important.

It should be borne in mind, that the MJO phase becomes weak after the 20th in the Indian Seas. One should remember that the ITCZ moves Southwards normally after the 15th of November.

Western and Central regions of Nepal will get the precipitation as a W.D. approaches the country from the west after the 20th. Would expect the temperatures to drop sharply after the passing of the W.D.

Northern regions of Pakistan will get precipitation as a W.D. moves east around the 20th. Punjab (Pakistan) can also get some rains. Subsequently, the actual drop in temperatures should be felt. Cooler NW winds post the W.D. would cool the upper Sindh region.

Coastal Sindh will get cloudy weather and rains for a couple of days around the 1st and 2nd, as AS-2 spreads its clouds towards the region. We will wait and watch, and track the movements of another low in the Arabian Sea, sometime around 3/4th November, and see how it can or may affect the region. May not have any effect as the movement should be NW.

These estimates are my personal views, and should not be depended upon for commercial uses. Reader's views and suggestions most welcome.

3 comments:

junaid said...

@rajesh ,, you mean to say cooling will happen if the system moves away from us.???,

rajesh said...

junaid:if the system comes are way, clouding will prevent cooling..
Ananth: Maybe i could go wrong..i was basing my W.D. calculations on the weak MJO, and other factors that could be in order during the mentioned period in November.

Anonymous said...

Do you see any cooling of tempartures in mumbai.its 15th nov and tempratures are like 35deg c and 24deg min with 45% humidity feels like startof october i dont see weather getting any cooler so soon even north its not that cold as of now your opinion sir