Wednesday, November 02, 2011



Keila crosses the Oman coast at 16.30 IST on Wednesday.

click here for larger view

Now, repeating the term used in Vagaries, while tracking North along the coast, the cyclone will "skirt" the Oman coast, and weaken rapidly.
As per our estimate, some rainfall occurred Malakand, Karachi, Makran division
of Sindh on Tuesday night and Wednesday.Gawadar got 3 mms and Karachi traces.
Rain will occur along the coast, with Karachi getting some showers on Wednesday night and Thursday.

AS-3 has formed in the Southern Arabian Sea (bang on target date: 2nd November). At 1006mb, it will deepen and initially move North.

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Latest as at 10.00 am IST:
AS-2 now a cyclone: 03A. and IMD names it "Keila" in its 10 am IST bulletin. Positioned at 16.1N and 54.5E. Winds at 35 knts/65 kmph and should cross Oman coast south of Salalah by Wednesday. Core pressure at 996 mb. Heavy rains expected in Salalah and South Oman. Rain expected in Muscat again today.
The clouding spreading NE towards coastal Sindh has thickened to some extent.



5 comments:

emkay said...

Rajesh, think Keila will cross Salalah on Thursday not today i.e Wednesday.

rajesh said...

emkay: Thats what IMD and JTWC predict.

emkay said...

ur blog says Wednesday - typo or a different opinion ?

rajesh said...

emkay:not a typo..

junaid said...

@rajesh what is the probability of As-3 affecting mumbai considering all the atmospheric parameters!!!!!any favourable parameter which can drag it to our doorstep???