Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Vagaries has put up a new opinion poll few days ago. To make it interesting, I request readers to cast their vote, and put in the answer in the comments as well, with your names. Would make it interesting, as I shall put in the opinions with names in the inter action page of Vagaries.

Request readers to put in their opinion.

International Page updated on 17th August with NZ videos.

BB5 moved North, now is as a low pressure over Haryana, resulted in heavy precipitation in the region. As a result, the monsoon axis now runs along the Himalayan foothills, transforming the situation in a "Break Monsoon" condition. This has been discussed and explained in the Vagaries on the 14th.

Places in Utterkhand measured heavy rainfall like : Mukteshwar­23 cms, Pantnagar­21cms, Dehradun­14 cms,and Tehri­13cms on Mon/Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Dehra Dun had another 75 mms and Agra 30 mms. Jaipur and Kota received showers on Monday and Tuesday.
Many places in H.P. had rains from 37 mms to 88 mms (Sundernagar). Bhuntar measured 76 mms. Keylog which had snow a few days back, received 42 mms rain, with a minimum temperature of 8c.
Delhi and Haryana too had showers on Mon/Tuesday.
The plains of Nepal received heavy rains on Tuesday, with Biratnagar measuring 102 mms and Dhangadi 78 mms.

Meanwhile the UAC over Gujarat and adjoining areas has fizzled out. Gujarat has finally gone dry.

With a break monsoon situation, the rainfall in the entire peninsula region has decreased. And with BB5 showing signs of weakening, the rainfall in the Delhi, Haryana, region will decrease from Wednesday.Rains will continue till Friday over the Utterkhand Hills and Western Nepal. Kathmandu will recieve the showers for a couple of days from Wednesday as anticipated.
The eastern end of the axis over Bengal and Bangladesh will continue to receive good rains for a couple of days.
Expecting decrease in rainfall in Southern and Central Pakistan from Wednesday. Almost dry in Sindh. Karachi daytime temperature may rise to 34/35c by Thursday. Few showers in the hills of extreme Northern regions.

Very difficult to estimate how long this break monsoon will remain, could from a few days to a week. As per my views, it is linked to the weak MJO phase currently in effect. Have explained and estimated earlier in vagaries that the MJO would be supressed from the 5th of August till around the 20th. Latest MJO forecasts estimate and summarise the supressed phase to regain from around the 24th August.

Mumbai Page updated with local weather for those interested.

Figures provided by Pradeep for Vagaries:
All India SWM Rainfall from 01.06.2011 to 14.08.2011 (75 days)
-------------
Rainfall in mm’s (Min 3000 mm)

1.Kollur (Karnataka) – 5592
2.Agumbe (Karnataka) – 5412
3.Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) – 5382
4.Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) – 4889
5.Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) – 4422
6.Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) – 4192
7.Kadra (Karnataka) – 4006
8.Bhira (Maharashtra) – 3849
9.Siddapura (Karnataka) – 3817
10.Rajapur (Maharashtra) – 3667

Many other heavy rainfall places which receive rainfall above 4000 mm such as Buxaduar, Matheran, Passighat, Devala and Shirali have got below normal rains so far.


5 comments:

Neeraj said...

It has not rained as predicted in Kathmandu though. The plains received some rain, with Biratnagar receiving 100 mms. Kathmandu on Tuesday was 0 mm, with Simara 40 mm. Interesting to note that Simara is on the plains just south of Kathmandu ( a mere 15 minutes flight from Kathmandu).Sunday/Monday too were disappointing for Kathmandu. Maybe it will rain for few days from today as the monsoon trough has travelled north and lies just south of Nepal (from Gorakhpurb to Forbesgunj which is just south of Bhairahawa to Biratnagar from Nepal's point of view).

Neeraj said...

However, western disturbance has interacted with the monsoon trough to produce deluge in the west , it seems :http://www.ekantipur.com/2011/08/17/national/far-west-floods-sweep-away-dozen-houses/339237.html

NT said...

Heavy rain showers in Andheri area since morning today. The one going on right now has been heavy and a prolonged one. It got very dark too some time back. Reminds me of the days in this July :-)

Vishal said...

In Powai Hiranandani many towers engulfed in cloud/fog. and raining heavily. Its dark and can not see 20th floor upwards of many building due to cloud/fog.

Anonymous said...

so u are saying the dry mjo phase will resume again on 24th or the wet mjo phase will start from 24th

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