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Sunday, August 14, 2011
BB5 is situated at the tri -border of South-West U.P./North M.P./East Rajasthan. Though at sea level, its upper air circulations exten upwards into 850 mb and 700 mb.
There are reports of heavy precipitation near and around the BB5 area.
Next few days, 15th and 16th, the system will track NW towards Delhi, and over Delhi it will precipitate heavy rains in the capital on both these days.
Tracking Northwards, we can expect good precipitation around Wed/Thursday in Haryana, Punjab, Uttrakhand and H.P. Also, expect good precipitation in Punjab and Northern regions of Pakistan.
Substantial increase in rains in Kathmandu from Monday thru Wednesday.
Once the system fizzles out in the Himalyas, and the monsoon axis shifts North, it will almost be like a break monsoon situation (for the Peninsula region) from Thursday 18th/Friday 19th.
Meanwhile, the UAC currently weak over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, will fade away in the next 24 hrs over the current position. Rainfall decreasing sharply in Gujarat and across the border in Sindh.
Posted 21st Afternoon: Water Vapour has reduced in Punjab and West Rajasthan..withdrawal seems possible in 3 days (As west Rajasthan record...