Saturday, April 03, 2010


Keeping a watch on the El-Nino:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
The recent decrease in trade wind strength over the Pacific, which stalled the decay of the current El Niño event, appears to have ended. Trade winds have strengthened over the Pacific recently, leading to a slight cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific.
Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures still remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations. And,El Niño breakdown has resumed.
Computer models suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels by the summer.
As per NOAA, " So far, declines in strength have only been modest; Further decline in strength is expected over the next few months, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and rate of decay.
"It is however important to recognize that impacts of the current El Niño are expected to continue to be felt in many parts of the world through at least the second quarter of 2010.
The situation in the tropical Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored."


I will resume my annual "Monsoon Watch" series from 10th. April, and will coincide and include the El-Nino progress therein.


Temperatures in India, have tapered down to "slightly above normal " levels, from April, as shown in the IMD maps.
Both, highs and lows are now marginally above normal over the country, but for a small region in Central Maharashtra, whwere the nights are below normal. (Nasik and Pune were at 17c.).
Highest in the country on Saturday was 42.6c, at Jamshedpur. This was the highest in the sub-continent. Highest in pakistan was 40c. Poll still open !
kapadias@gmail.com

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