Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 1st April to 8th April.

As we move into April, we are alert, and start observing the "Monsoon Build up" parameters. Starting from the Mascrene High formation and cyclones activity in the Southern Indian Ocean to the Peninsula trough and "pre- monsoon" lows in the Bay, the ICTZ movement and to the heating up in the NW regions of the Sub-Continent. 

1. Important this week will be the N/S trough line as it starts showing signs of forming. A N/S trough, or a "line of Wind dis-contiunity", is a trough which has winds moving in the opposite direction on either side of the line. In this case, a perfect line of wind dis-contiunity will be formed when the winds will be from the N in the West of the line, and S in the eastern side. By mid April, the line should be seasonal. and located approximately in the central region of the Southern Peninsula.

As the week starts, the trough will be haphazard, and will be somewhere along the Western Mah/coastal Karnataka line. That is, more towards the West than normal. But during the 2nd half of the week, the line may move Eastwards, and start stabilising its position, though still weak.

2. Resultantly, there will be clouds developing, and bringing afternoon showers (read Summer showers) to Kerala, being in the Southern tip region of the trough. The meeting of winds can bring about good convection and start initial Summer precipitations.

3. M-7 is precipitating light rains in Northern Pakistan on the 31st, Saturday. Moving into India by Sunday, 1st April, and leaving clear weather in its rear, M-7 will precipitate rains, though weak, in Kashmir, H.P. and move into Western Nepal. Moisture will linger on in Nepal for 3/4 days into the week.

4. Strong NW winds have kept the day temperatures within reasonable limits along the West Coast of India, and in fact have brought the days to the below normal conditions in N.Konkan. Mumbai had a high of 31c on Saturday. 

But the heat is creeping in from the NW of the Sub-Continent as seen in this IMD map. Heat wave temperatures were recorded in Upper Sindh (Pakistan) and adjoining Rajasthan on Saturday. 

In Pakistan highest temperatures were Mitthi 43 °C, Jaccobabad ,Hyderabad and Nawabshah 42 °C while in India Jaisalmer was at 42c.

Heat wave will abate from the region after Monday. However, heat wave will prevail over Central and Eastern India mainly this week.

5. A vortex in the upper air forms over Bangladesh by Thursday, and could bring some heavy rains with squalls in some pockets of the Central regions of Bangladesh on Thursday,5th/Friday,6th. 

6. It's going to be almost a cloudy week for Dubai and Muscat. Light rains expected in both cities on Wednesday,4th. In fact,Thursday will be almost overcast.

Muscat will start getting cloudy from Tuesday or Wednesday, and can expect some light rains on Wednesday /Thursday. Days will be cooler as a result.

City Forecast:

Delhi: Come Saturday and the capital has moved into the "36c" range, as mentioned in the last weekly forecast. S'Jung was 36.5c and Palam 38c on Saturday.

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with light drizzles on Monday night/Tuesday. With moderately strong SE winds, the days will be marginally rising to the 37/39c levels. A bit of moisture may make it more uncomfortable, as the "real Feel" temperature will be around 39c.

Wed/Thurs/Friday: Return of N winds will lower the days to 36c levels again. And humidity going down, it will be much more bearable in the latter half of the week.

Mumbai: Saturday was 31c.

Sunday/Monday: The day will be slightly warmer than Saturday, maybe reaching 33/34c.

Tuesday/Wed/Thursday: Will see the days falling back to 31/32c as N/NW winds will dominate. 

However, with humidity levels showing no signs of going "out of limits", (may remain at a high of 75% and minimum at 40%) this week, the comfort factor even with 32c and 33c may be "still ok" by Mumbai standards.  The positve signs will be the lows, which will remain below the 25c mark most of the week.(It could rise after mid April). 

Pune: Week will be dry, with the days warm at around 38c and nights showing a fall to 18/19c throughout the week. 

Monday/Tuesday may be partly cloudy, and result in the nights going up marginally to around 20c.

Nagpur: With the heat gradually rising, we can expect the "hot city" to reach 42/43c by Wednesday. Convection can happen by mid week, as S winds bring in moisture. Expect thundershowers on Thursday.Nights expected to rise to 26c by mid week.

Kathmandu: M-7 precipitation may bring thunder showers to the capital from Tuesday. Persistant moisture through the week will produce the odd thundershower till Saturday next. Resultantly, very pleasant weather will rule the week, as the days will remain in the 29/30c range, and nights around 12/13c. 

Karachi: Partly cloudy weather will rule most of the week. Winds will be W/NW, and with clouds in the sky, day temperatures may drop slightly from the present 37c levels, maybe by 2/3c. But, humidity increasing is going to affect the comfort levels and the real feel temperatures.

Sukkur: Remains cloudy till Monday. But, Tuesday onwards it should be clear skies and hot temperatures. Though Sukkur touched 40c on Saturday, beyond Sunday, I do not expect an unusual heat wave in the region this week. 

Yes ! It has started to "bake" as Satyen from Bharuch points out.
And Satyen, what more can I write? It was all there in the weekly forecast put up last Sunday (point No.3).


In Sindh (Pakistan) the predicted heat wave is on, with Lasbella recording 43c. Incidently the highest in Asia on Friday.
Nawabshah, Hyderabad, Moen jo Daro and Chorr were 42c. Sukkar sees a rise to 40c, and Karachi pre maturely heating up to 38c.


In India, Friday's highest was Chandrapur, Vidharbha (again, in Vagaries' predicted region) with 42.0c. Bhuj in Gujarat was at 41.7c Idar at 41.2c and Rajkot was 40.8c. 
Pune too fell in line with the forecast, dropping to 36.6c on Friday. 


Rains expected in Orissa and North coastal A.P. on the weekend. Bhubaneshwar could receive up to 15-20 mms.

Point No:3 of Sundays' Vagaries' Weekly Forecast: "Thursday,29th and Friday 30th, could see persisting heat and hot temperatures bringing almost heat wave conditions in Cenral Sindh, parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat region (including Bharuch) and Vidharbha."

Ashokbhai confirms the heating up of Saurashtra region as is also seen in this IMD map. Rajkot (Saurashtra) reaches 41.1c on Thursday, while Chandrapur (Vidharbha) reaches 42.1c. I would estimate Bharuch to have touched 40.5c today (Thursday).
In Sindh (Pakistan), it was Mithi and Chorr at 39c as the highest.
Going as per our Weekly estimated range.


Delhi saw a high of 33c today, as as expected, should shoot up into the 36 range from Saturday.
Pune was stubbornly at 38.7c Thursday.


Mumbai:Expecting the Mumbai humidity to reach 85% as forecasted on Friday morning with misty and hazy conditions. 


Kathmandu is in the 30-11c range.


Point No: 2: The projected trough was present thru this week and now, has adjusted into a slightly more NE/SW position. It runs from M.P.thru Mah and Karnataka into the Arabian Sea on Thursday.

March has meant 7,000 weather records broken in the U.S...see International Page.
Global Warming Hysteria Page Updated..


An Early Prelude to the Monsoon Watch Series has become necassary as the La-Nina has ended a little faster than expected. 
MW Series will start around 10th April.


The 2011–12 La Niña event has ended:


This past week an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved into the western Pacific, cloudiness increased and easterly wind anomalies along the equator decreased. As a result, all key indicators of La Niña are now within neutral thresholds. 


With key indicators returning to neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels, the La-Nina is over !


The 2011–12 La Niña decline has been fairly typical, with a peak in January and a return to neutral conditions by early summer (or spring).


Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have generally warmed (though only slightly) compared to those of two weeks ago. All three NINO indices monitored have warmed in the past fortnight. 
NINO3 −0.1 +0.1 0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4 −0.4 −0.3 0.1 °C warmer
NINO4 −0.5 −0.3 0.2 °C warmer


The SST anomaly map for the week ending 26th March shows mostly near-normal sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, with some residual cool anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is now showing a "trend" towards a positive movement. Current SST show leaning more towards a +ve IOD. In fact it is not -ve at all.
A fully developed +ve IOD has proven to be good for the SWM in the Indian Sub Continent.


Likewise, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have also returned to near-normal values for this time of year. The 30-day SOI to 25 March is +7.1  
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose early in the last fortnight before holding around +7 for the past week, remaining within values indicative of neutral ENSO conditions. 
The SOI has remained within neutral values since mid to late February. The latest (25 March) 30-day SOI value is +7.1.


Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions. 
It has been below the threshold of +8 since 19 February. 


The demise of the La Niña means the chances of a "super" SWM has ended. But, neutrality can indicate a normal (not super) SWM. 
While sea surface temperatures around the sub-continent remain coolerr than normal, there remains a chance of normal (or even slightly above normal) rainfall over the Indian regions.


As of today (according to me), The above two SST parameters (ENSO and IOD) indicate a normal SWM. But do not forget, there are another 6/7 parameters like the cyclone season in South Indian Ocean, the Mascrene Highs, April/May heat in central and NW India, cross equatorial winds, pressure gradients etc that will determine the strength and arrival date of the SWM. 

Excerpts from Aust.Bur.of Met,, Jamstec, Unysis and Vagaries'compilations.

Just a few days back, Vagaries expressed concern on the seriousness and importance of the SWM. We should look into International studies also and consider steps for preparedness. See here.
Now some good news, we read-

"India examines various weather prediction models of foreign agencies." See link here.



U.S. has been through a mild winter this season..compared to Europe and Asia..and March began with heat waves..Do you know how many records have been equaled or broken in March ...?? Put up a guess ??? 

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 25th March to 1st April.

1. M-6, the latest in the series of W.D.s in March, is now sweeping through Northern Pakistan and India. The clouding is pushing Southwards into Punjab and Haryana. Northern areas of Rajasthan are parts of Delhi are clouded too. Across the border, clouds are observed in Sindh and Punjab (Pakistan).

M-6 will precipitate in the Northern regions of Pakistan on Sunday. Some incoming moisture will bring rains to Upper Sindh and adjoining regions on Tuesday, 27th. 
But Indian states of Kashmir, H.P. and parts of Utteranchal will continue to get rains till Tuesday, 27th March. In fact, on Tuesday, it will be heavy in H.P. with upper regions of Keylong and Kalpa receiving snowfall.


Punjab can get light rains on Monday. Delhi will not get any rains from this system.
M-6 moves into Western Nepal as a weak system on Wednesday, 28th March.


2. A trough line runs along Central India, roughly in line with 20N, for most of the week from Monday thru Thursday. The N winds and the S winds meet along this line. 
Starting Mon/Tuesday, Effect will be: Hot temperatures South of this line, specially in the Eastern part of the trough covering Eastern Vidharbha and adjoining Orissa. 
Nominal rise in NW and Northern India of 1 to 2c in day temperatures.
Strong N winds above the line, from Rajasthan in the West to W.Bengal will be prominent. 


3. Thursday,29th and Friday 30th, could see persisting heat and hot temperatures bringing almost heat wave conditions in Cenral Sindh, parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat region (including Bharuch) and Vidharbha (see vagaries map).


4. Very strong winds in Southern Arabia on Wednesday, 28th, will kick up a lot of sand. This sand/dust storm could flow into Oman on Thursday.


City Forecasts for the Week:


Mumbai: After the 39.5c on Saturday (24th), Mumbai slid to 36.5c on Sunday. However, Mumbai Colaba remained at 35.3c even on Sunday.
Throughout this week, Mumbai winds will be "favourable" due to the trough line. No E winds, and no heated temperatures. 
From Monday, N/NW winds will keep the days within the 33/34c range. But, the sea breeze will bring up the humidity gradually in the week.

By Friday, 30th, the morning humidity will shoot up to 85%. This would result in very misty and low visibility conditions (more so in open areas) on Friday and Saturday mornings.


Pune: With the minimum night temperatures still in the below normal range at 15c, the evenings and nights continue to be comfortable thanks to the extended cool climate of this city. 


Monday/Tuesday will be warm and the day temperature shoulds be around 38/39c, and the nights might just give up clinging to the lows and settle at 18c! But come Wednesday and Thursday and we could see a slight drop of a couple of degrees again. 
NW winds would be dominating from Wednesday or Thursday. 


Delhi: Nights are still in the pleasant 15/16c range. Capital will be fortunate as it will remain in the 33/34c range (day temperatures)till the week end. Actual heating (read above 36/37c) for the capital will not start till next Saturday/Sunday, 1st April, at least. 


Surat will also see a drop in temperatures from the unusual 40c of Saturday and Sunday to around 36c from Monday itself. Rise in humidity on Friday will find a misty morning on Saturday 31st March. 


Pakistan:
Sukkar: Possibility of clouds and light rains on Tuesday, 27th. Rise in day temperatures (above 38c) after Wednesday as overall heat increases.
Heat wave expected later in the week on Friday/Saturday.
Karachi: After a partly cloudy Monday, the rest of the week will be clear. The days will be dominated by NW winds, which may become strong and gusty towards Thursday and Friday, and could be dust raising. The temperature range will be around 34c till the end of the week, and a slight increase thereafter.


Nepal:
Kathmandu: Neeraj kept us posted of the city's weather throughout last week. The day's had heated up last week crossed 31c, a bit unusual for this time. However, I see the temperatures have stabilising between 27c and 12c. Next week being dry, I would estimate normal temperatures for the Capital.


Last week's Vagaries' forecast turned out to be almost 70% accurate point by point.

Mumbai: Vagaries had "warned" Mumbai of hot ,dry winds "getting stronger", and the day temperature shooting up to 38c (see wednesday's blog).


Well, it WAS hot and dry on Saturday. Hot winds geared up the day's high to 39.5c, beating the prediction by a degree, and a low humidity of only 13%.
Mumbai Colaba was at a high of 35.5c, and my readings at Breach Candy recorded a high of 35.8c. 


As per Vagaries, Sunday may continue with a high of 38/39c, with hot winds dominating, and low humidity adding to the dryness. Could expect the NE winds to bring down the humidity to 15-20%.
This is again like before, a temporary rise. Monday promises to be better with the high scaling down to around 35c.


More of that in our weekly forecast to be put up in the evening.


Pune was marginally higher as predicted at 38c. But, Surat shot up to 39.8c on Saturday. Should come down to 36c by Monday.


Karachi and Sukkar are still in the "pleasant" range. With a low of 15c at Sukkar, and 18c at Karachi, I would say the regions around are enjoying an extended low temperature period. The highest in Sindh touched 40c at Mithi on Saturday.


Vagaries will be starting the Monsoon Watch series as usual by 10th of April. 


SWM quantum and dates will be discussed in our Monsoon Watch Series. I would justify with the synoptic situations and weather behavioural patterns changes from day to day.

Heat increases in the "pink" belt shown in Vagaries' weekly forecast map. Solapur along the line reaches 41.3c and Kurnool 41.2c. Pune, too, somewhat in the range was forecasted to heat up from Friday, and touched 38c today (Friday).

Nagpur hovering around 40c.

Mumbai gets hotter on Friday by reaching 35.3c. 

Western disturbance M-6, approaching Northern India. Over Northern Pakistan on Saturday and into India by Sunday.

Clouding seen along the trough line in Interior Karnataka and Southern Interior Mah. on Friday.

Friend and Rainfall Statistics Expert Pradeep, has put up a very interesting Poll for Vagaries' readers. It is also available on his blog.

Pradeep and Myself are following the results of this poll very eagerly. 

Please make your choice, as it would be interesting to know reader's opinion. 

On 23 March, the World Meteorological Organization, its 189 Members and the worldwide meteorological community celebrate World Meteorological Day. This day commemorates the entry into force, on that date in 1950, of the WMO Convention creating the Organization. Subsequently, in 1951, WMO was designated a specialized agency of the United Nations System.

All the Best to the Vagaries' Meteorology Community and other meteorologists around the World... Let's inter -act More to be of use and help all around us !