Remember Last Week's Typhoon " Nangka"  ?.some Facts and Superb 3D Satellite Image see International Page

Posted Monday Night:
Low remains Stationary ..was expected to be so for 12 hrs since last posting..but merged in Axis

Rainfall on Monday (Daytime)..

Posted Sunday Evening:

A cold Sunday for Indore, with 98 mms from 8.30 am -5.30 pm IST, and the day's max at 23c....Bhopal saw 29 mms in the same time period.
Some heavy rainfall amounts in cms as on 8.30 am Sunday for West M.P.>.
NARSINGARH 39, UJJAIN-AWS 32, SARANGPUR 31, BADNAGAR 25, DEPALPUR 23, BADNAWAR 19, SHAJAPUR-AWS 17
VIDISHA-AWS 16, BHOPAL-AWS-ARG 15, RAISEN-AWS 14, GAUTAMPURA 13, INDORE-AWS 13, SARDARPUR 12, SEHORE-AWS 12
KUKSHI 11, SHUJALPUR 11, DHAR-AWS 11, BIAORA 11, DEWAS-AWS 10, KHACHROD 9, SONKATCH 9, THANDLA 9,
BUDHNI 9, TARANA 9, ALIRAJPUR-AWS 9, NUSRULGUNJ-ARG 8.

The UAC has now descended as a Low over North M.P. and adjoining U.P. (Not numbering it as BB-3, as it has originated on Land). System is likely to persist in same position for another 12 hrs, before merging with the Axis , somewhere near Guna.

Next 2 days Outlook:
Monday 20th:Heavy rainfall will persist in West M.P. for another 12 hrs. Rains will also occur in South Rajasthan and Eastern Gujarat. North Maharashtra region gets good rainfall. 
Expecting increased activity for Akola and Aurangabad district.

West coast from Surat to Kerala will see enhanced rain actvity. Subdued rains in Odisha. Gangetic Bengal, TN and interior Karnataka.

Tuesday 21st: Rainfall more likely in East Rajasthan and adjioing M.P. and Northern Gujarat.
Subdued in East M.P, Int Karnataka and TN.

Moderate rains spread to Coastal Sindh (Karachi) on 21st/22nd.

Mumbai: Having missed a good chance to see enhanced rains (due to certain adverse factors), I see no reason why Mumbai cannot get increased rainfall from Monday...city should get at least 30-40 mms on Monday and Tuesday, with thunder.

Pune: Monday and Tuesday has chances of moderate showers in parts of city. Around 7-10 mms possible in some areas.

Goa will continue to get Showers and monsoon weather with around 30 mms/day.
Surat:Rainfall increasing form Monday (maybe evening)...and good rains thru Tuesday. Would expect around 50-55 mms cumulative Monday and Tuesday.

Ahmadabad: Breaking a dry spell, Chances of thunder showers on Monday and Tuesday. Expecting around 20 mms/day.

Not much chances of rains increasing in Hyderabad (India) and Bangalore next 2/3 days.

Karachi and Hyderabad (Sindh) will get dry weather till Tuesday, but can expect a shower in the vicinity or around on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Around 5 mms.



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Posted Sunday Morning:
The UAC over Jhansi has moved West as shown in Super Imposed Image...and the Green Line shows the Upper Air Axis...
UAC will Track West/South West, and push the Cloud Quadrant likewise.

Ujjain received a massive 319 mms,  Bhopal 149 mms..Indore saw 129 mms,..More amounts as they come in

Posted Saturday Night
In the last 6-9 hrs, the UAC ( At 850 hpa) in the axis has moved West..and was near Jhansi as on 8.30 pm IST Saturday...yes, Westwards !
Heavy rainfall is seen in the West, SW and south quadrants of the system.  System may move South/West and push the rain patch along with.

Several stations in M.P, Punjab, Delhi and parts of Eastern Vidharbh received very heavy to moderate rains on Saturday..
Major Rainfall in the 9 hrs ended 5.30 pm IST Saturday in cms... 
M.P: Shajapur­14, Bhopal­6 ( 75 mms till 8.30 pm), Ujjain­4,Shivpuri 3, Pachmari 3, Guna 3, Nowgong 2, Indore 2, Ajmer 1 Ratlam 1
Delhi (PLM) 3
Rajasthan: Jaipur5, Chittorgarh 4
Punjab:Ludhiana 3, Amritsar, Patiala,  

Maharashtra: Bhramhapuri 2, Mahabaleshwar­2 each ,


As on Saturday Afternoon, the UAC mentioned below in point 1(b)..has descended to 850 hpa level, and is near Chutrakoot (U.P). Will descend to sea level as a Low by Sunday morning.


To All Vagarians....

Posted on Friday 17th Night:

City Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:
Mumbai: Saturday  will be cloudy, with passing showers (around 15 mms). Some showers can be heavy. Rainfall and windy conditions increasing by Sunday, around 30 mms or more.
Pune: Light drizzles in some parts or vicinity...days around 29c.

Kolkata: Rain and Thunder showers in many parts. 

Surat: Saturday /Sunday:Light rains upto 2-4 mms in the vicinity of Surat. Rains increasing from Monday.

Rain Estimate for Saturday and Sunday:

Very heavy rains likely in North Punjab ( > 50-70 mms/day in some places), and H.P. Heavy rains will occur in Delhi NCR (Average 20-25 mms/day), North and East M.P. and adjoining North Chattisgarh, 
Many parts of Odisha will get heavy rains. and moderate rains in adjoining Vidharb (Nagpur). 
Scattered light rains in some pockets of North Gujarat and Saurashtra. Light showers also likely in many places of Interior Maharashtra.
Very heavy rains in Pak Punjab ( Eastern regions) and rest of Punjab get heavy showers. Light to moderate rains in Upper Sindh also possible.

Precipitation increases along the West coast. Heavy rains in South Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka.Strong winds of around 30-35 kmph along coast.

Weather Situation for the weekend, 18th and 19th July:
1. Monsoon axis runs along Pak Punjab  (west) and through Haryana, Southern U.P. and then the Eastern end forks into 2 parts...
a),. Running through the Northern Bengal/Sikkim thru into the NE States...and 
b). Another trough sloping SE from Eastern U.P. and into NE Madhya Pradesh/ North Chattisgarh and into Bay thru Odisha. An UAC lies embedded in this trough...and will descend to sea level as a Low in the same place  around the East M.P./Chattisgarh region. 
Low will track along the axis NW nearing Delhi by around 21st. 

2. As West winds rush in, the Off shore trough strengthens, and strong winds of up to 30-35 kmph expected along the West coast. 

 A few heavy Welcome showers lashed Central Mumbai in the early hours of Friday. A good "restart" to the faded Monsoon...But, not upto Mumbai expectations and norms..as SantaCruz measured a measly 4.6 mms while Vagaries measured 9 mms. Moderate showers in Navi Mumbai also.
 
Nearby Alibag ( 45 kms South of Mumbai) saw 20 mms. 

Mahableshwar recorded 52 mms. Kolhapur recorded 5 mms ...All till 8.30 am IST Friday.
 
Would expect Mumbai to get around 15 -20 mms on Friday and Saturday. Sunday may get around 30 mms.
Expecting increasing intensity in South Konkan and Goa ...to around 35-45 mms per day from Friday evening.

Another good showery day for Kolkata on Saturday. A brief respite on Saturday, but more rains Sunday.
More in write up tonite...

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Mumbai's long dry wait may be over...Rainfall may "pick up" strength in Mumbai from Thursday Night...gradually increasing in intensity on Friday, with a wet week end...

1 July to 15 July 2015:
North Konkan has received just 6% of normal rainfall in first half of July . A whopping 94% deficit !!
South Konkan has received just 23% of normal rainfall in first half of July ... 73% deficit !!

Overall Konkan division is in 86% deficit for first half of July.. 

Compiled by Abhijit Modak

Mumbai daily rainfall from 15th June -15th July..

Rainfall expected to increase in Konkan after 18th July....Write up coming on this

 Point Nos 2,3 and 4 ( Below) "Implemented"

 See Literal Withdrawal of rains as mentioned in Point 1.
 

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Posted Monday 13th July Night: See Monsoon Performance and City forecast Below the Article

1.The Monsoon Axis currently in the North at the Himalayan foothills, remains in the Northern most position till Saturday 18th (at least).
Precipitation literally withdraws from NW India and Central and Western India next 2 days.
From 16th July, Due to interaction of a Eastward moving upper air WD with the axis, enhanced rainfall is expected in the  Hill states of Kashmir and H.P. and Utterakhand, Punjab regions of India and Pakistan, Haryana , Delhi and West U.P.Rains will last for a couple of days in the North.

2. West coast off shore trough becomes active from 15th for 2 days South of Goa.( Coastal Karnataka and Kerala).
Rainfall remains subdued in Konkan, Interior Maharashtra, Interior Karnataka , Telengana and Southern Peninsula till Saturday.

3. The Eastern States of Odisha, W.Bengal and A.P. get some showers as the off shore trough harbours embedded UAC during 15th/16th.No significant numbered system .

4. Very Heavy rains in Nepal and Sikkim Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th.

After all this rain in the North, thanks to BB-2, where do we stand now and what is the All India Rainafll Position ?

Seasonal Rainfall (in mm) from 1 June to 13 July, 2015
Region                                     Actual                    Normal                      % Departure from Long Period Average
All India                                    270.9                     280.0                                         -3%

East & Northeast India              503.4                     543.2                                        -7%
Northwest India                        186.3                     148.2                                         26%
Central India                             268.9                     293.7                                         -8%
South Peninsula                       218.1                     248.9                                        -12%


Rainfall Performance Map Sub Division Wise

 and now District Wise for those Interested

Central India:

Mumbai will get partly sunny weather with few passing showers on Tuesday, Wednesday and more cloudy on Thursday.But the dry wait may end to some extent as Possibility of rainfall increasing on Friday. Friday and weekend forecast will be up onThursday.
Pune, the dry wait continues...will be seeing almost dry and warm conditions. will be partly sunny with light drizzles in some areas.

Kolkata: After 59 mms (DumDum) on Monday (12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST), Light rains on Tuesday. Taking full advantage of the UAC in the Eastern trough, Gets the rainy spell again, as Slight increase to around 10-15 mms on Wednesday and more on Thursday to around 30 mms.

Delhi NCR: Capital needs time to recover from recent rains. So, almost dry and again hot to 36c on Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. Umbrellas out again on Friday !

Bhubaneshwar: The wait extends for some more days, till Thursday. But wait will be hot Tuesday, Wednesday as day rises to 38c. Thursday thru Saturday sees increased rainfall.

   Fresh Bright Start to a Monday Morning ..Sat Image of Monday 13th July..!    

Mumbai Lake water Storage Position as on 11th July:  


Total Storage Available 1778 Mcum
Storage available ( All in Mcum) on 11th July 614...meaning 34% available....
If we take 33% for leakages, wastage, evaporation etc, we have 409 Mcum balance for distribution...and taking supply at 3.75 Mcum per day, Mumbai has 109 days supply.

Pune Region has total Storage facilities of 10266 Mcum, while on 11th, 3100 Mcum is filled, that is 30% is available.

The Lowest is in Marathwada. Total storage...7603...Available 493...6% Storage available.

Total Maharashtra Storage of all Dams and reservoirs in Mcum 37463, Storage as on 11th July 9756....26% Storage filled.

Mumbai : Monday and Tuesday:Partly sunny day. A couple of  passing showers possible in some parts. Around 5-8 mms in the day.
Pune : Monday and Tuesday will be Partly sunny with a few light showers in some areas.

After all this rain in the North, thanks to BB-2, where do we stand now and what is the All India Rainfall Position ?...See Tomorrow's Post (Monday)

Rains Lash Delhi...and BB-2 moves to South of Delhi s shown in Vagaries' Map...See full details and rainfall in Vagaries North

Posted Saturday Night:
BB-2 is now WML at North M.P. and adjoining SW U.P.

Day's Rains v/s Forecast

Rainfall in 12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST Satuday:
Gwalior 190 mms ( Core Green Area), Delhi Palam 90 mms, Varanasi 68 mms and Jhansi 40 mms ( Green region), Delhi S'Jung 58 mms, Lucknow 27 mms, Bhopal 15 mms...Panjim 11 mms.
As anticipated, Kolkata reduced to 2 mms.

 Posted Saturday Noon IST:

Very good rains in Delhi NCR last 24 hrs ended Saturday Morning..averaging 55 mms amongst all the Observations ( Vagaries' Estimate 30 mms)...Highest being 93.8 mms at S'Jung, 92 mms at Lodhi Road, 89 mms at Mungeshpur, 70.4 mms at Palam and 63 mms at Gurgaon. Only 5 mms were seen at Akshardham and 24 mms at Jhajjar.

(On going thru the previous posts, we will see that it was mentioned in the Forecast and El Nino estimates, that the Northern regions of the Sub Continent can get good rains as the Western Disturbances will have a "free hand" to inter act with axis, which is North of Normal, in absence of any resistance).

Kolkata, true to its estimate, was also lashed by heavy showers...
Some amounts of Bengal as on 10th July Morning:
Rainfall Ending on 10th July 2015 :-
1. Dumdum (Kolkata) - 157 mm
2. Diamond Harbour - 146 mm
3. Alipur (Kolkata) - 143 mm
4. Sriniketan - 117 mm
5. Burdwan - 112 mm
6. Baharampur - 83 mm
7. Digha - 78 mm
8. Bankura - 66 mm
9. Krishnanagar - 61 mm

Sent by Vagarian Santosh from Kolkata"
Yes the Day was Such ......................................
This was The Story Of the Day !
Rains and Kolkata - "An Infinite Saga"
Date : 10th July 2015
Location : Kolkata

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Posted Friday Night:

Due to good influx of moisture and embedded in a upper air trough, BB-2 in a fast development has strengthened to Depression strength.
See City forecast below maps:

Mumbai gets a few passing showers this weekend. The wait for meaningful rains continue.
Friday, 
Delhi NCR got the weather we expected, a cool and rainy day. Eastern Parts (Hindon) received as much as 62 mms in the day, along with another 43 mms in Noida.

Saturday and Sunday will be cloudy, with rains increasing Sunday evening..

Hyderabad (India) remains mainly dry with very light drizzles in some parts or in vicinity.

Bangalore light rains (less than 3-5 mms) as shown. But increasing rains from Monday, and the Garden City may cool down a bit.

Indore gets increasing showers on Sunday, maybe upto 10 mms on Sunday.

Nagpur: good rains in the day on Saturday, around 15 mms, but decreasing from Sunday.

Surat and Valsad: After high hopes, may get Light precipitation on Saturday and Sunday, being cloudy weather. Around 3-7 mms per day.
Frequent showers of around 30 mms/day for Goa this weekend.

The West coast trough boasts a bit this weekend...Heavy rains in coastal Karnataka this Saturday and specially Sunday.