Early November Smog over Delhi..the How and Why ....See Current Weather Page 

An UAC has formed off the Kerala coast, almost at sea level. Some charts even depict it as a low at sea level. Another UAC has formed at 5N and 90E. 
The 2 UACs joining "line" to form a trough aloft. 

The Arabian Sea UAC will not sustain beyond 24 hrs, hence the on going medium rains in Kerala and coastal Karnataka decrease after Tuesday.
But the Bay system will move NW, initially as a UAC for the next 48 hrs. It will descend as a Low, (BB-11)by the 14th of November, around the 8N and 85E region, East of sri Lanka. The system, BB-11 will move NW towards the TN coast as a depression. 

Rainfall increasing progressively along TN coast from 15th, and in Chennai from 15th/16th. Centre of the system will be off the TN coast on 16th...

As mentioned on 7th, another Low forms around the Andaman region, about 93E. 
The 2 system can form a strong trough. (Usually called a trough "in sympathy").
The tracking of BB-11 and BB-12 will depend on the tilt of the trough. 
Vagaries reads the situation as BB-11 moving into TN as a depression..

The coming WD, currently as a low South of the Caspian Sea region will move into the UAE (Dubai) region on Wednesday 14th. 
Dubai can expect precipitation on Wednesday. 
The Low moves into the Iran/Balochistan/Afghanistan region on Thursday, 15th. Here we might see 2 options:

a) A strong trough line is seen developing NE from the system into Afghanistan. This may literally pull the WD into the Afghan and adjoining extreme North Pakistan areas.

b) The trough mentioned remains weak and not effective. In that case, the WD will be allowed to move E/NE, and move into Northern Pakistan and Northern Indian regions. Precipitation can happen in Kashmir, HP and plains of North Punjab (both sides).

Vagaries' events sequence till 18th November, estimated on 9th November, Night:

1. A low ( BB-11) can form in the Bay, East NE off Sri Lanka, around the 10N line, by the 14th/15th of November. Initial pressure 1006 mb

2. Tracking West/North-Westwards, centre  will Strike Northern Sri Lanka by the 15th, and move into Tamil Nadu between Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinum by the 17th of November. Indian coast hit pressure 1004 mb, as a depression.

3. Moves inland, with good rainfall in interior TN, specially S.I. and Nilgiri Mountains and S.I.Karnataka on 17th/18th. 

4. Moves into Arabian Sea as an UAC around 18th November. We've moved too much into the future, will halt now...and monitor the scenario..

5. Another Low  (BB-12) forms near the Andaman Islands by the 18th of November...

6. Weak WD on schedule for extreme Northern region around 12th November.

We shall track the events developments daily (specially after 13th), and intimate the changes , if any....
(These are my personal views, and for commercial use ,please refer your local met Dept).

Forecast till Sunday as put up in chart on Wednesday...

Contest Date closing on 15th November for the Month..please fill in/ correct  your entries...

Posted on Wednesday Night 11 pm...

Forecast for the next 4 days..Thursday 8th Nov. to 11th Nov.  Position of systems as indicative from tomorrow.

Dubai Pics sent on Thursday Morning.....on Inter Active Page..

1. UAC and "disturbed dis-continuity" around N.I. Karnataka. As per explanation in vagaries, clouding extending into South Madhya Maharashtra evn on Wednesday.
Light rains in Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka. Light rains in Pune on Wednesday.

2. UAC in South Arabian Sea within a small trough seen at 8N and 71E.

3.Previous forecast was till Tuesday, shall put up next few days forecast by tonite.

Posted 11.45Pm Monday:

Bang on !!...UAC forms off Kerala coast at 850 hpa....weak vortex seen in S.I. Karnataka in 1200Z charts.


RAINFALL FOR TOP 50 DISTRICTS ALL INDIA OCTOBER 2012. from GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page..another quality input from GSB...

Updated @ 8.00 pm Sunday, 4th November...

For North India, earliest WD (N-1) i see is around 11th/12th for entering India, and a day earlier for Pakistan...

Waiting for more Contest Entries..Please Note, Entries can be changed/ revised Before 15th of the Month...
x--------------------------x---------------------------------x---------------------------------x----------------------x-
Posted @ 7 pm Sunday, 3rd November:
Forecast for Sunday 4th / Monday 5th and Tuesday 6th:

Sunday 4th:  Most of the clouding seen on Sunday clearing away.
Rain lingering along AP Orissa coast and Bengal coast. Heavy rainfall around Vizag. Some light rains around Goa and Chennai/Bangalore in the evening. 
Much of Maharashtra will be dry.

Monday 5th: Heavier rainfall continues around the Vizag regions. Around 2 days, areas around Vizag get good showers. 
Odd thundershower popping up around Chennai and Bangalore. 
Cloudy and light rains in AP and adjoining Vidarbha. 
Cloudy and light showers in coastal Bengal. 
Light/Medium showers increase in S.I. Karnataka and adjoining TN.

Tuesday 6th: Rains continue in S.I.Karnataka and adjoining AP and TN. 
Decrease in the other AP regions.

An UAC, with a trough running into Sri Lanka, may possibly form in the Arabian Sea off the Southern Kerala coast.

Northern India remains clear and dry. WD after Wednesday over Pakistan (maybe).

City Forecasts only for Sunday 4th/Monday 5th/Tuesday 6th:

Mumbai City: 
Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Dry and sunny. Warm day as Easterlies dominate. Days will be around 34c. But nights will be23c on Sunday and 21c next two nights.
Outer townships also dry and cooling down after Monday by around 2c.

Pune will be dry too and cooling after Monday by a couple fo degrees initially.

Delhi NCR : Dry and good NW winds will keep haze away. Days around 30c and nights pleasant at 15c. Cooling after Wednesday.

Kolkata: 
Sunday/Monday: Remains cloudy with light rains in some parts and areas. Daily rainfall around 5-7 mms.
Tuesday: Sunny, but clouds increase again by evening. Sharp shower possible in some areas at night.

Chennai: 
Sunday/Monday: Southerly winds will dominate the days. The odd thundershower pops up in the evening lashing some areas. Rainfall upto 20 mms/ day  possible.
Tuesday: Potential of thundershower less.

Kathmandu remains dry next week. With temperatures in the 23-08c range. Expect a fall in nights after Thursday.

Pakistan also remains dry and cold weather settling in the Northern regions. Nights are cold in the Balochistan plains with Sibbi at 8c. Colder in the coming week, but dry.




Sharing a past Similar Weather situation..Chances  40% of it happening tomorrow..

Vagaries has projected a vortex (see below)  around the interior Karnataka region by tomorrow, Monday. This will be the result of a bloated (non effective) low region of 1008 mb covering entire South India. The vortex will form on Tuesday within, temporarily.

Now, out of interest, i went thru certain similar situations. I checked, that on some occasions a line of wind dis-continuity forms north of the vortex. 
That is when the low region was big enough. 
In such a case, the cloudings from the vortex can stretch into interior Madhya Maharashtra and along the Karnataka and Maharshtra Western Ghats. Maybe on Monday or Tuesday. 

Please note, I am sharing a past weather occurance, and chances of vortex spreading its clouding North are 40% as of now ....may or may not happen...

Rest forecast given Below in yesterday's blog..

First, a refresher , to continue from where we left on Wednesday. Our last forecast on 31st October, Vagaries had put up, reads:- 

"Thursday 1st November- Friday 2nd November: Rainfall can be expected all along this trough line, with the heavier falls in the region the BB-10 system is embedded. Hence precipitation spreading into interior Karnataka, Northern AP and Southern Maharashtra. Light/medium rains drifting into Konkan and coastal Karnataka.
Saturday 3rd November: If the trough remains intact and sustainable (which is questionable as it is not the season), we may see some enhanced rainfall along the Konkan belt."

Thursday/Friday , it seems was almost on stream. A little variation seen was the clouding from the system spreading more eastwards due to South feeding winds remaining strong.Some rains were reported and recorded from the interiors of the state, specially the Eastern parts . Nagpur was cool (25c) and had 17 mms, Gondia 15 mms and Kolhapur 6mms. in the day. Around Pune there were reports of light rains (0.6 mms).(Figs till 5.30pm). 

For Saturday, it is obvious the other option of the trough NOT sustaining, prevails. The trough has been miserably let down by a fast depleting BB-10, now almost over, just a small area of 1006 mb near AP/Chattisgarh border. 
A very weak trough (should we call it a trough?) runs from Goa thru South Mah thru North AP and just fizzling out over the AP coast region.
1 more day of remnant clouds in Interior Konkan, S.Mah, Vid, South Konkan/Goa and coastal AP upto Bengal.

Mumbai City: The wind vane shows a steady East. Was waiting for it to S or SE.
Partly cloudy the city remained hot at 35c. 
South Mumbai  had 2 drops falling in our area at around 8 pm Friday, but cleared off within 15 minutes. (Was out in the lawns last evening, so could manage to witness the few drops, otherwise....doubtfull).


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BB-10, is now a Well Marked Low Pressure, at 1004 mb. Located in Interior Karnatak near Davangere.
The wind speed in the E, SE and NE of the system is still at almost 25 knots. So winds in the Southerly direction are pushing North along the North TN coast. This has resulted in good precipitative clouding in the East and more in the NE quadrant of the weakening system. So, the rains in Vidarbha and adjoining Karnataka and AP are due to the BB-10 system.

Now, our East-West trough runs along the 15N line, and extends upto the 850 hpa level. With the BB-10 embedded in it. Sustaining power depends on BB-10.
Mumbai winds prevailing at E/NE till afternoon...