Hot weather just prior to an active W.D.

A W.D. has been active with 20-40mms of rain in many places across Pakistan today. Days have cooled down, with Islamabad recording 14c as the day's high today.

Max Day temperatures of 6th.

Even as the W.D. has become active over Pakistan, and Kashmir,today we see the day temperatures rising all over the Indian region, excepting Kashmir. The map above shows the Western half of India in the high range of 32-36c today.

Anomaly Map Of 6th.

Elsewhere in India too, the days were high, and above normal temperatures are seen in the anomaly map above .
Now, this is just the "pre" heat of the approaching system. The active western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region and plains of northwest India from tomorrow onwards.
Rain/snow will occur all over Kashmir and over Himachal Pradesh from tomorrow for next 2-3 days.
Rain/snow will commence over Uttarakhand from Sunday, and increase thereafter.The hill stations and tourist resorts in both the states will get a fresh sprinkling of snow.
Some thundershower activity may occur over Punjab and Haryana from tomorrow and this activity may extend into Rajasthan and Kutch regions. Central and east India will see precipitation commencing on 8th and 9th February.
More detailed reports of the W.D. later.

For Mumbai, it will be a partly cloudy Sunday, with the day around 30c, and no signs of real cooling at night (22c). Monday will also be partly cloudy, but we should see some cooling from Wednessday thru Saturday. A windy Wednessday and Thursday, will bring the temperature down to around 27c in the day and nights can be around 17c. Suburbs may go down to 14c. Pleasant weather for Mumbai till Saturday.
kapadias@gmail.com

Good Rains/snow for the North

In his forecast, meteorologist Ashokbhai, from Gujarat re-assures of a strong W.D. coming towards the Indian region this weekend. Also a very good detailed report on Rajkot weather available on his site at
http://www.gujaratweather.com/

This blog is to be read as a continuation of the last blog.

In the previous blog, we discussed the weather over Indian sub continent for January.

Well, now we have,above, the actual average temperature anomaly map for January. The map of the average temperature anomaly shows the northern areas, eastern half of U.P and eastern India region as below normal (due to colder foggy days). Rest, is observed in the normal range, and as expected, the west, and the west coast (Mumbai region) is above normal. What with the highest temperature in Asia being recorded in Mumbai on certain days ! We have seen the hot January diagram for Mumbai in the previous blog


And the trend continues in the first week of the current month. Todays maximum and minimum are above normal covering almost the entire country.(IMD maps).

The actual maximum temperature readings on 2nd. February are high, and shown in the map below.

And, it has also been unseasonally dry.


We now look westwards, and sight the fresh W.D. approaching the sub-continent region. Expected to precipitate fairly good amounts of rain/snow in the north, and also in the central regions of Rajasthan/M.P, the system should become active in the Indian region from Saturday. Hopefully, it should lessen the rain deficit, and bring cooler weather in its rear.


Earlier, in its path, rains are expected from this system in Dubai on Friday, and Oman on Saturday.

kapadias@gmail.com

Summing up of January Weather For the Indian Region:

Weather wise, It has been an odd and "different" January 2010 for the Indian region.


As a starter,to analyse the the average temperatures observed this winter,  we divide the region.
For the North, the average temperature, for most of the month, has been below normal. Picking up 2 cities from the region, Delhi and Amritsar, the daigram shows the major part of January in "blue". Now, this is basically due to the "super" cold days, and not cold nights ( as we would normally expect).

Fog, dense fog, prevailed over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on most days of the month.Thus keeping the days much below normal. Day temperatures were as much as 12c below normal on certain days in some cities. Delhi hovered around 12c and Amritsar around 10c on certain days.


Now, the anomaly temperature map, of the last week shows it all.

Contrary to this, the Western region of the country almost had a heat Wave!! In one blog, I had mentioned this, with Mumbai going up to 35c, in mid January ! (Mumbai diagram..RED all the way!!) Yes, its been really hot with temperatures still refusing to slide down, and averaging34/35c throughout this month. Goa was 35c today, 29th. Jan ! 

Typically pleasant cities like Pune, which would normally touch a low of 6c, has seen 9c on only 1 day, and has otherwise been averaging around 13/14c.
Mumbai has had a low of 19c on one day,(14c in the suburbs). While, on a good winter's night, we can easily read 15c in the city amd 10c in the suburbs.
Same story along the Southern regions, and the temperatures never really dropped this winter in the Southern and Central parts of India. One can say the states barring the Northern states, had just about an average winter.

And, with hardly any W.D, worth its name, the normally rainy regions (North) remained practically dry. Only one good snowfall during January in the hills.

IMD rain map shows the entire North as deficient.

And this is the region that actually requires, and recieves good rains/snow in winter.

Mark has put up a beautiful forecast for February..for his region in Scotland..and believe me..his estimates are too good !!

kapadias@gmail.com

Global warming claims melt faster than Himalayan glaciers

For the Global Warming, alias Climate Change, alarmists, when the weather is hot, it’s due to Global Warming. When the weather is cold, it’s due to Climate Change


I often hear, and agree that an occasional cold snap doesn’t disprove Anthropogenic Global Warming. However, anyone can download the data from GISS, HadCRUT, NOAA land & ocean, UAH, or RSS and see for themselves that there has been a cooling trend that started sometime before.


By displaying different start date, it is possible to cover up any short term trend by averaging the data over 20/30/40 years. In fact, this is what is being done.


But why hide it? And is trying to hide it honest and genuine?
I think, weather and meterological facts are forgotten and get "out of mind" very fast, as they, at that moment are only of general interest to the majority of the people.


A meteorologist should remind the people about how hot is was in the 30’s and 40’s. In reality the warm spike in the 20’s, 30’s and 40’s warmed more than the one we have just left behind.


Then remember the ice age scare in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s?
Then it warmed a bit in the 90’s, stayed the same for almost a decade, and now it has been cooling again for the last 3 years. Where does C02 induced warming fit into that?

I beg you not to believe me…just check it out…its on the net…you’ll see.
Honestly I don't buy these kinds of predictions. I accept that the data shows the earth temperature is variable, and these variations may change every 3 years, or every decade. Season to season changes are short term, and are not reason for alarm. The climate is the very definition of a chaotic system
I do not accept that climatological science has reached a degree of accuracy where they can accurately predict what will the climate be in the next few decades, much less centuries in advance.


But let's not conjecture predictions that we have 20/30 years or so. We just don't know. If we spend trillions trying to fix what is a natural occurrence our fixes may just contribute to making the problem worse.

kapadias@gmail.com

Every other day the media comes up with a new "false claim" regarding the Global Warming report !! And this new falsehood claim is even more amusing, it reads :"UN wrongly linked Global Warming to natural disasters".
Took some time for them to realise this truth, but, better late then never !!
Nothing new, since I have always been "against the stream" in this matter, and have been putting up, and stressing on this point thru my views against "Global Warming" on regular basis last few months.

My 4 part series on this has actually highlighted many of these points (available at  http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/2009_12_01_archive.html ) last month. read through the December blogs of 8th,15th,18th and 24th. for the complete write up written earliar.


Shall put up a new blog tomorrow. With common sense meteorological knowledge, and practicle viewing, its easy to understand exactly whats (not) harming the earth.

Changes in Weather next week for India:

Day temperatures in the northern region of India have risen a bit today. After almost 8/10 days of bitter foggy cold, and days below normal by 9-11c, it was higher today, though: The map still shows a north-south divide in the day temperature range all over the country.


Highest day temperature in India today was Ratnagiri at 34c. Mumbai was 33c today.

Southern regions are still warmish in the day, and continue to have above normal days. The cooler nights have started creeping southwards, to some extent, with the below normal region extending towards the central/southern areas (IMDmap).

Lowest in the country today was -30c, in the Ladhak region, and -1c at Amritsar in the plains of the country.

The weather is set to change for the sub-continent from Tuesday, 26th. A system, W.D, and that too a moderately good one, is aproaching the Indian region, and is exected to preciitate good rains from Wednessday, 27th. (see upper air map above ). And with good rains in the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan regions, I see the fog disappearing from Northern India from Monday onwards. Maybe a clearer Republic day.

Days will get cloudier from next week for northern India, and the hill states can get good snowfall from Tuesday. The major hillstations of North India can expect snow next week on Wenessday/Thursday, 27th./28th.

Clearer weather behind this "front" will bring down the night temperatures substantially in the north from Thursday 28th.

Cold dry winds can be expected to sweep the central areas of Rajasthan, Gujarat, M.P. ad Maharashtra next week after the assing of the W.D.

Mumbai, exect relief from early next week. Days will be around 29c and nights at 18c in the initial part of the week, and dropping after Thursday.

kapadias@gmail.com