16th July El Nino status

El Niño is present.

 Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. 

El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

 CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. 

These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.