Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Upcoming Bay of Bengal Cyclone Update 9 May 2023

Cyclone Update

Multi-Model track forecast of upcoming Bay of Bengal Cyclone 

As per the various models, the upcoming cyclone in the Bay of Bengal likely to head towards Myanmar coast. This will be the first cyclone to hit the Myanmar coast in the pre-monsoon season (April-June) after 2017.

IMD-GEFS Windspeed probability of the cyclone on 14 May that is on the day of probable landfall

Very warm ocean temperatures (31-32C) in the Bay of Bengal with anomalies of 1-2C can fuel rapid intensification of this cyclone.
Figure: Actual SST on 7 May 2023

Figure: SST anomalies on 7 May 2023

Figure: Observed SST in the Bay of Bengal using Buoy sensors. Source: NIOT/INCOIS

Climatologically (based on data from 1982-2019), there is a probability of 0.25 of a cyclone intensifying to at least a category 3 cyclone (wind speed at least 100 knots) during the pre-monsoon season in the north Indian Ocean.

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