Outlook for this week...Monday 8th May to Thursday 11th May...posted 7th Night.
The first low pressure of the year BB-1 is likely to form by 8th May west of Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal.
BB-1 will intensify into a depression around 9th, and then into a cyclone by 10th/11th May.
Heavy rain, strong winds and very rough sea conditions are expected for Andaman and Nicobar islands.
No potential threat to Indian mainland coast
Initial path of BB-1 will be north-northwest and then turn northeast towards Myanmar.
BB-1 will open the gates for cross equatorial South-Westerlies to reach parts of southern Bay and Nicobar islands region...need to monitor if this leads to SWM onset over the Andaman-Nicobar islands.
BB-1 will cause subsidence over most of Indian region and suck out the moisture from the subcontinent.
⚠️ Heat Alert for NW and Central India.
As forecasted in our earlier post, the typical hot and dry 'May' weather is likely for North, Northwest and central India in the coming days.
By 11th, places will exceed 43°C in Rajasthan, Vidarbha, and Gujarat Region, and possibly cross 45°C in Vidarbha and Northwest India.
*Warm and humid weather. Chance of some light patchy rain till Tuesday 9th May.
* Max/min around 33-34C and 26-27C.
*Eastern townships, Navi Mumbai region and Thane district may get some localized thundershowers.
*Interior Konkan, Panvel, Karjat may see higher max of 37-38°C as the week progresses.
*Chance of thundershowers till 9th/10th May.
*Weather to warm up significantly after that.
*Days may reach around 39°C towards the end of this week.
*Min to be around 22°C.
Gujarat: Mainly hot and dry weather, with many places seeing around or above 40°C max temperature.
Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar region may see 42-43°C max this week. Baroda and Bhuj will also see max around 41°C. Bharuch region can also see max close to 40°C.
Surat will see max of around 35-36°C initially, but rising to 37-38°C by the end of the week.
Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology
Issued Tuesday 9 May 2023
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.
El Niño WATCH – tropical Pacific warming but little atmospheric response
The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. The eastern and central tropical Pacific continues to warm with little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators.
Six of the seven International models indicate El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded from July, with all models meeting thresholds by August.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All five models suggest that a positive IOD event may develop by June. A positive IOD typically supresses winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, and if it occurs with El Niño, it can exacerbate the drying effect.
A strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse lies over the Maritime Continent and is forecast to move into the western Pacific region in the next few days which may weaken trade winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and potentially push the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere more towards El Niño thresholds.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is expected to return to neutral towards the end of May. Positive SAM in winter often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia, but has little rainfall influence in autumn.
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Next update expected by 23 May 2023
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