Posted 3rd May..

Scenario heading for a change...BAY gearing up...

BB-1...the Low in the Bay could form around 6th/7th May. The intensification is presumed..

A cyclone most likely to form in bay of Bengal in second week of may around 10th/11th May. 

(Seems it will be a repeat of Cyclone Amphan in terms if intensity and track.Amphan was category 5 cyclone in bay of Bengal which hit West Bengal in may 2020 )

Also cyclone induce subsidence over land which will further enhance temperatures and can possibily trigger heatwave.

Thus, with the formation of this cyclone, very high chance the first actual heat wave (not the media hyped) of this season will hit central, west India after 13 May.

As this cyclone will suck away all the prevailing moisture from land, no Thunderstorm in most of India after 10 may.

Analysed by Vag.Vineet