We have been hearing recent voices upon a El Nino condition possible in the Indian Monsoon Months.
(El Nino is the phenomena that reduces rainfall in the Monsoon Months).
Well, let me clarify, it is still early to jump to a conclusion..that "El Nino will spoil the Indian Summer Monsoon this year ". It is not realistc today to come to any conclusions regarding El Nino.
There are no definite and clear indications, that, surely El Nino conditions will prevail over our region in June/July.
The current status of this (Called ENSO Conditions) do not clearly show it...
Now, lets see what the Latest NOAA adversary study shows about the current scenario..
>La Niña is present.
( La Nina is the reverse of El Nino.)
>Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
>The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.
>'Negative SST anomalies have gradually
weakened across most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean since at least
December 2022 and positive SST
anomalies have emerged in the far
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean since
late January 2023.''
>also,..The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
*Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies were observed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with anomalous cyclones on either side of the equator.
ENSO-neutral conditions* are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer....(meaning May to July..early Monsoon).
Early conditions do not warranty any panic or concern for Monsoon..
* Neutral Conditions means neither La Nina nor El Nino.