Monday, November 22, 2021

22nd November:
Clear skies bring cold temperatures in J&K and Ladakh
Today's minimum
Drass -13c, Leh -8c, Numbra -9cKargil -5c. 



Mumbai: Outlook from today 22nd till Wednesday 24th November:

Light to moderate rain/Thundershowers expected in Mumbai region today. Some localized areas may get heavy shower for few minutes. 
Pune and neighborhood region to also get some rain with localized moderate intensity Thundershower today. Intensity reducing from tomorrow.

Rain intensity reducing over most of western Maharashtra from tomorrow. 

Dry weather from Thursday 25th onwards.

3 comments:

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 23 11 2021

Issued 23 November 2021

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña established in the tropical Pacific

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
ENSO Outlook dial showing LA NIÑA status
Current status: LA NIÑA

La Niña has become established in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be short-lived, persisting until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Several indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is now responding to, and reinforcing, the changes observed in the ocean.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is approaching its end, with oceanic index values in the neutral range. However, cloud and wind patterns across the eastern Indian Ocean suggest some IOD influence remains. All models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. A negative IOD increases the chances of above-average spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Maritime Continent region at weak to moderate strength. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, increasing the chances of above average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent, to Australia's north.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has generally been positive for several weeks. It is forecast to remain at positive levels to the end of the year. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au

Next update expected on 7 December 2021

sridu said...

forecast models are showing more and heavy rains for mumbai in the first week of December..with one more low pressure forming in the Arabian Sea

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Will Mumbai ever get cold this year? Will it rain every month?
Humid warm weather even in last week of November?
Rajesh sir, your long experience in this field suggest that there is climate change in Last few years?
In diwali we used to feel cold early morning while taking bath. Now never experienced that in many years. Why?
Since January 2021 is it not we hear rain rain and rain every month in Maharashtra resulting humid warm climate? This was not there in my 55 years of life. Please enlighten us sir.

Outlook for the next 3 days (4th, 5th, 6th December):  BB-20 intensified into cyclone Jawad. It will move north-northwest initially and then...