Thursday, November 25, 2021

Posted 24th Night:


BB 19 expected to bring increased rains to T.N & A.P. this weekend, 25th thru 28th. 

The weak system BB 19 is expected to move West and cross into the Arabian Sea. 

This can bring precipitation to  Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra  next week. More on this later.

Mumbai & Pune will get dry and warm weather this weekend..25th thru 28th. No chances  of getting a major shift to cooler temperatures. 

Rain expected  again next week . Will track the system and quantify  later.

Since 1970, a total of 239 cyclonic storms have formed in the Indian Seas (Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea).  Out of this, 164 formed in Bay of Bengal and 75 over the Arabian Sea.

There are initial indicators for development of the first cyclone of this post monsoon season over Bay Of Bengal around end of November or start of December. 

A low pressure system BB -20, is expected to enter Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand around 29th November. This system B- 20, remains under observation for any significant development. 

4 comments:

Rajesh said...

Sanjeev,

You have asked to explain these,as you call, weather  changes in Mumbai. 

Let me tell you ,in my 55 years of Mumbai  weather  observations, I have extremes  such as

Heavy December  rains in 1966, November  thundershowers  in 1976,unlikely heat in first week of March  ,40c,in 1980, that also first 40c in India, hails in March ( please check year in Extreme Blog), torrential 1day rain of 580 mms at colaba in 1974, Low of 11c and 7c at calabash and scruz many years  ago. 

Many more in Extreme Blog.

Weather changes occur due to cyclic climate variations. 

Yes,for  sure,there is a change  due to urbanization.

Changes  are restricted to urban islands.

Accept these variations,they are everywhere and cyclic.

If in doubt, ask.

Rajesh said...

It may be unusual,but has happened before.
People's memory is short!

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Thank you Rajesh sir for your detailed reply. I was not knowing that.
Agreed that such extreme may happen once a while but my question was is there gradual change in Mumbai climate?
Earlier days rain used to start in early june, Diwali used to be cooler followed by winter till Holi. Summer was not so extreme though humid.
But last few years specially 2021 cold was shorter due to January rains. Heat started in mid February, mid may cyclone and delayed rain. Fortunately monsoon was good. Now November humid warm weather with rain.
Does it indicates weather change in Mumbai? Or this is one of those extreme years.
Even Maharashtra interior experience more rain than earlier years?

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
When we were kids we use to see cool night temperatures after diwali.we use to do camp fire at night during december. May be city was small and more open spaces less vehicles and more trees at that time in suburbs were the reason to feel cool..Now it's all concrete..

Outlook for the next 3 days (4th, 5th, 6th December):  BB-20 intensified into cyclone Jawad. It will move north-northwest initially and then...