vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years
For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
7th October Morning:
High amounts of low level cyclonic vorticity was seen over Goa this morning as per ECMWF analysis - 850 mb.Upper level wind divergence seen with Winds increasing downstreamConvection could have been favorable in the region of upper level divergenceLow level circulation with positive vorticity along with upper level divergence can help favor convection as both could lead to to verticallly upward motions. Vertically integrated Moisture Convergence is also in the northern sector of the circulationLow level convergence happening to some extent in the eastern parts of the circulation and then the circulation takes it to the northern and north west part of the circulation.In the process of such a transport , the upper level divergence in the north west side will favour a dynamic lifting ..That would ensure deep convection develops there.In such a weak circulations the dominant factor could be changing and evolving quickly.Local factors play an important role within the circulationespecially on the mesoscale vortices within the large scale circulation
Useless high latitude systems over AS and north Bay during end of SWM will only delay onset of fragile NEM. This will only lead to desertification of SE India.
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