Monday, October 11, 2021

 Posted 11th October Afternoon:

The South West Monsoon will loose its steam and strength over Maharashtra, Gujarat, M.P. by 13th October. 

The "Monsoon wind pattern" and Monsoon current will be diminishing from 13th. (In Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, M.P. Telengana and N.I.Karnatak) where it will withdraw further .

Gujarat Monsoon withdrawal from 14th October completely.

 Hot weather will prevail over Kutch and western Rajasthan from also rise in temperature and hot weather in North Konkan.(Including Mumbai).

But, for Interior Maharashtra, there is a possibility of some recurring Post Monsoon rains in Vidharbh , Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada around 18th/19th. This will /may occur if the announced system from the Bay ( BB-15) heads towards the State. Keeping the options open., but very necessary for the farmers to know about this post monsoon showers.

All dams in Marathwada 100% full (Jayakwadi 98%).

Mumbai & Pune: Last couple of days of thunder showers possibility on Monday/Tuesday or at the most Wednesday. Then Mumbai & Pune can bid good bye to the Monsoon.

Hot & sunny weather from Thursday 14th.

Mumbai Water Storage at 99%. .Pune Khadakvasla 69%..All others 100%.

Pune: But, System BB-15 can bring rain to Pune after the monsoon is over . Keeping the options open for some post monsoon showers for Pune on 18th/19th. 

परंतु, अंतर्गत महाराष्ट्रासाठी, 18/19 च्या सुमारास विदर्भ, मध्य महाराष्ट्र आणि मराठवाड्यात मान्सून नंतर काही वारंवार पावसाची शक्यता आहे. खाडीतून (बीबी -15) घोषित प्रणाली राज्याच्या दिशेने गेली तर हे होईल /होऊ शकते. पर्याय खुले ठेवणे., परंतु शेतकऱ्यांना या मान्सूननंतरच्या सरींबद्दल माहिती असणे अत्यंत आवश्यक आहे.
मराठवाड्यातील सर्व धरणे 100% भरली (जायकवाडी 98%).

14 મી ઓક્ટોબરથી ગુજરાત ચોમાસુ સંપૂર્ણપણે પાછું ખેંચશે.


ramanathan said...

when dose the north east monsoon begin

ramanathan said...

when does the northeast monsoon begin

sset said...

navi mumbai extreme rains like july ....
Enough rains for Mumbai and Maharashtra - crazy rains starting from May onwards.
Time for NEM for parched SE India

Rajesh said...

Outlook for NEM:

With the possibility of low BB-15 developing in Bay of Bengal and remaining at north AP/Odisha latitude, winds will continue to be mostly westerlies over southern Bay for another week. No immediate signs of winds changing to easterlies for Tamil Nadu coast. NEM onset likely towards the 3rd week of October.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian Government Bureau of Metereology latest issued 12 10 2021

Issued 12 October 2021

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña ALERT; tropical Pacific continues to cool

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
ENSO Outlook dial showing La Niña ALERT status
Current status: La Niña ALERT

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña ALERT. This is due to continued cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean and an increase in the number of climate models showing sustained La Niña conditions over summer. Historically, when La Niña ALERT criteria have been met, La Niña has subsequently developed around 70% of the time. A 70% chance of an event is approximately triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.

Most oceanic and atmospheric indicators of ENSO are currently within the ENSO-neutral range, but some have shifted towards a La Niña-like state. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are neutral, but have cooled over the past three months and are supported by cooler than average waters beneath the surface. Some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line, are approaching La Niña levels. Six of the seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau meet La Niña criteria from November.

A weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. Most models suggest the negative IOD event will ease to neutral levels in late spring. A negative IOD increases the chances of above-average spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia, while a neutral IOD has little influence on Australian climate.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been active over the Maritime Continent since late September. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards over the coming week and weaken as it approaches the western Pacific. While the MJO is over the Maritime Continent region, it encourages enhanced rainfall over the tropics to the north of Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has been neutral for the past week after 5 to 6 weeks at positive levels. While it is forecast to remain neutral for the coming week, it is expected to return to generally positive levels from October to December. A positive SAM during spring typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

More information

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Next update expected on 26 October 2021

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