The Phase & amplitude of MJO becomes favourable for Cyclogenesis over the Bay.
The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) based on IMD GFS is indicating potential zone for cyclogenesis over south Andaman Sea .
Due to the above reasons, the Westerly wind force at 3N-5N along the Sri Lanka coast towards the Andaman Sea will gain strength in the next 2 days.
Today Westerlies are not strong enough to feed the upcoming BB-1
BB-1 will hence form around 1st or 2nd May.
Will take momentum slowly and strengthen to depression in next 3/4 days (4th/6th May) and initially track N/NW.