The UAC over the Straight of Malacca at present will track W/NW into the South Andaman Sea. Will descent to form the Low Pressure BB-1 around 30th/1st May.
System showing several undefined and variable parameters as of now.
Wind shear is strong in the North Bay, but favourable in south Bay, and the Equatorial and Sub Tropical flows consistency are to be observed. The propagation of a Rossby Wave ( Trough) in the Eastern segment is favourable. The MJO entering phase 4 is also favourable.
The upcoming Western Disturbance may not effect the formation, but the track is to be seen.
SST will help gauge the "in situ" strength of the system once it travels Northwards (Or North/West wards). SST is warm enough now.