Thursday, November 02, 2017

Posted 5th November Night (Sunday):
BB-14 , does not survive and fizzles out before emarging as expected in last post...
Chennai: Sunday in the day , 
AP Meenambakam: recorded 13 mms , 20 mms in 24 hrs till 8.30 am (Sunday); Total for season 625 mms (+267 mms)
Nungabakkam : Recorded 9 mms till 8.30 am Sunday.:Total for season 634 mms (+266 mms).
We maintain as mentioned,there will be a weakening of the trough across Sri Lanka...hence  Rain intensity will decrease from Tuesday 7th November. 
7th onwards daily rain will be less than 5 mms /day for next 4 days at least.

Mumbai: Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th will be warm in the day with sparse clouds, but mostly sunny. Days will be around 34/35c. Slight fall in night temperatures to 20/21c on Wednesday night/Thursday Morning.
Goa: Parts of Goa had light rains on Sunday 5th evening/night. Vagarian Atul Naik confirms rains in Margao today... Light showers continue one more day on Monday.


New Delhi: Foggy mornings, no rains. Winter expected to be felt as the day temperatures drop below 30c and nights below 15c from Thursday 9th.
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Posted Thursday Night 2nd November:

1.  The Low in the Gulf of Siam , it seems, may not survive and emerge in the Bay of Bengal. Adverse conditions will make the system ( BB-14) fizzle out in the East Andaman Sea itself. 
Chennai: Intermittent to occasional showers this weekend in Chennai, around 20-30 mms /day. Rains decreasing from Tuesday 7th November .

Chances of rain in Goa:
2. A trough and a LWD off the Karnataka -Kerala coast this weekend (Saturday/Sunday) may bring thunder showers to Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa.

6 comments:

rajesh said...

Anoop: No major WD in plains till 3rd week of November...but temps will drop

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Nashik recorded lowest minimum temperature 11.7℃ in plains in india today.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Sorry, Chhindwara (Madhya Pradesh) recorded lowest min temp 10.7℃ in plains india today. Then Nashik recorded 11.7℃ second most lowest min temp in plains.

babu mathew said...

Yes .. the wait is over. We got the first NEM rain here in kasaragod,kerala.thanks to lwd.

Unknown said...

Hi Rajesh, this year you got most of your SW Monsoon forecast spot on ! And now you are rocking again with the NEM forecast too. I know NEM probably has more "vagaries" than the SWM, so that makes it more challenging to predict. But you do it quietly in your own unassuming way. It was a delight to enjoy the SW Monsoon through this blog and the delight continues into the NEM. Great going for ordinary weather lovers like us, thanks to you and the Vagaries team.

Suresh

Narayanan Ky said...

Thanks a lot for NEM coverage.It almost happening as per your prediction..onset trough has sustained for very long ..sir, do you expect upcoming low from Andaman to see to merge with it