Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Posted Thursday Night 5th Night:
Rains likely this weekend in Maharashtra:  (Farmers need to adequately cover their cut/ripened products in Aurangabad and Akola Regions: Already informed them).

Mumbai: Change in weather from Friday as the rains may appear in Mumbai City on Friday Night...and showers/thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday.  
Pune/Aurangabad : Thunder showers on Friday and the weekend...cooling down the weather after a hot Thursday at 34c..Aurangabad had a mild shower Thursday evening.

South West Monsoon Withdrawn Line (Vagaries' views): 



Monsoon withdrawal early from West and North-West and Delayed from Central and Peninsula. Winter strength and intensity  is not linked to date of SWM withdrawal time/date, but winter winds do set in after the withdrawal and axis moves Southwards, encouraging proper NW winds and WD effectiveness.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted Wednesday Night 4th October:

Rains likely this weekend in Maharashtra:  (Farmers need to adequately cover their cut/ripened products in Aurangabad and Akola Regions: Already informed them).

Mumbai: Thursday, like Wednesday will be hot and sunny. Mumbai sees a weather change this weekend. Showers or thunder showers are likely in Mumbai and all outer townships on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune will see thunder showers this weekend. 

Heavy showers likely in Aurangabad this weekend. Moderate showers, though not very heavy, showers in Akola this weekend.

These rains from Saturday will move Northwards along Coast, maybe covering Valsad and upto Surat
More and update of forecast for this weekend on Thursday 5th 

41 comments:

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, when do you expect the SWM to withdraw completely from North India? According to various models, rains are in store for East U.P. and neighbourhood on the 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th of October. Is this forecast valid? What do think is in store for NW India?

kaustubh naik said...

i want to know avg annual yearly rainfall of santacruz , thane , colaba and even dahisar or borivali
if south west monsoon retreats early and north east monsoon sets in early does that mean winters will begin early ?
sir plz give me reply of my 2 questions

kaustubh naik said...

i want to know avg annual yearly rainfall of santacruz , thane , colaba and even dahisar or borivali
if south west monsoon retreats early and north east monsoon sets in early does that mean winters will begin early ?
sir plz give me reply of my 2 questions

NATASHA D'SOUZA said...

Cloudy n thundering in vasai

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Lightening and thundering begans Khar West Mumbai 4.30-4.45 PM onwards- Dark black cloud covering South east Skies -

parshuram shinde said...

Its raining in santacruz... Light to medium with thunder and lighting

sridharraja said...

heavy thunder storm in thane now... very very heavy rains

Cumulus Arjun said...

Rain and thunderstorms have now only started in Mumbai

Abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,such powerful thunderstorm lashed Nagothane which couldnt be dreamt of....I had never seen such a storm ....a destructive one ....squally winds blew every roof of the homes

Cumulus Arjun said...

Sorry thunderstorms started from 4:30 itself in Mumbai

Cumulus Arjun said...

Parel got 15 mm in 20 minutes around 5:00-5:30

NATASHA D'SOUZA said...

Very violent storm hit vasai around 6pm.

sset said...

Navi Mumbai heavy rains. Will vortex over AS? MAHA 5th rainy month.

NATASHA D'SOUZA said...

Once again raining heavily in vasai ...currently going on.

Abhijit said...

Bangalore saw 77mm yesterday which was the highest 24hr rainfall in more than 10 years for October ! with this crosses 140cm mark as 1410mm annual rainfall till now ! Near of 2005 all time highest annual rainfall.

rajesh said...

Mumbai and most outer townships recieved thunder showers on Friday evening...some rain amounts till 10 pm IST... Grant Road 31 mms, Borivali 28 mms, Dadar 22mms, CST21 mms and outer township Badlapur (Abhijit Guage) measured 20 mms. IMD Colaba measured 8 mms till 5.30 pm IST.
Mumbai and Outer Townships: Moderate thunder showers will continue into the weekend.
Pune will also get moderate to heavy thunder showers Sat/Sun.
Moderate thunder showers in Bangalore also.
Delhi NCR will be hot and dry.

sset said...

Vagaries forecast exact target - indeed it rained hard with lightening over Mumbai! No other models made this unusual time forecast!
Any idea about NEM onset - TN / SAP eager wait continues....

Cumulus Arjun said...

Thunderstorms were predicted today in Mumbai but its clear and very hot. Why so??

Akshay Shah said...

Prediction is for Rain & thundershowers... that started yesterday night... Doesn't mean it will rain throughout the day!!!

khan gazanfar said...

When the ranins will end

abizer Kachwala said...

Yes Arjun...storms occur only in afternoon or evening/night... And not usually in the morning...its hot and sunny in Nagothane too ..

Rajesh Kumar said...

Bangalore heavy rainfall continues, today also, very bright Sunshine, it may pour today also. Bengaluru already crossed annual rainfall, NEM season is still there. 2017 may be highest rainfall year for sure. Is trend changing? Bengaluru always crossing annual rainfall data.

Rajesh Kumar said...

According to models, Rain may subside by Diwali.

sset said...

Navi Mumbai torrential rains with thunder storms = monsoon withdrawl halted?? MAHA/GUJ sweet spot?

Cumulus Arjun said...

Raining here moderately since last 1.5 hours.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Not just Bangalore, here in Hyderabad too the rain gods have been very kind but they need to relent now as the rainfall is surplus and the city infrastructure is crumbling.

sset said...

Why did NEM failed 2016 - chronic drought for SE India...

Taken from net..
This is one of the very interesting questions I would also like to know about. As per IMD, the Monsoon mission coupled model forecast of 2016 suggests weak La Nina conditions over equatorial east Pacific turn to cool neutral ENSO conditions during the NE monsoon season. Similarly model also suggests the current weak negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the NE monsoon season. Which may be the possible reason for the slightly below-normal to normal (90% -100% of LPA) rainfall over Tamilnadu.

How are 2017 conditions?? - apart from this we need siberian High formation also??

Cumulus Arjun said...

Good rains today evening in Mumbai.
Mumbai ap scz - 14 mm
Mumbai city Colaba - 51 mm

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Kumar. Yes Bangalore is inching towards highest annual rainfall ever after 2005 and some one chants continuously about it's desertification process. Lol. big blow to his repetitive theory

Vinod Desai said...

Today during the thundershower we felt as if lightning striked somewhere very close in malad. I have never heard such a loud sound till date.

Neeraj said...

It must be one of the hottest 'first week of October' here. I wonder what might be the cause and if the trend would continue into the winter. Any expert opinion ? A short write-up would be nice.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

@Neeraj
That is true not just for Kathmandu but the entire region.

@Rajesh is the best person to answer that.

Models indicate the trend will change within a week. There will be a spell of rain and then the weather will be more October like.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

@Abhijit
Theories built on pure fiction cannot be demolished by data and numbers.
There is talk about the previous NEM being a failure while conveniently ignoring that the one before that gave a huge surplus and caused a lot of flooding and suffering. That's what is vagaries of the weather is and that is how it has always been.

A variant of a famous quote is apt here.
His mind is made up, don't confuse him with facts.

A link in case you want to read more
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/02/13/confuse-me/

Rajesh Kumar said...

@Saurabh Dwivedi : Rain is not only reason behind infrastructure problem. These are other significant factors pressurising existing weak infrastructure. Varuna (Rain god) just show mirror.

Rajesh Kumar said...

Meanwhile, Bangalore got 48 mm rain yesterday , and KRS is at 28.44 TMC compared to 9.44 TMC last year.. Big Relief.. Hope KRS will cross 34-35 TMC in coming days

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Agreed Rakesh.

Here is what i posted last month as a comment on this site.

Regarding Water Shortage.
But there is water shortage, water tables are going down so surely there is desertification going on. The short answer is no. There is no connection between the two.

We are over populated, we don't manage our water resources well, we are using more water than nature can replenish so water tables are going down. We grow paddy in Punjab. We grow sugar cane in arid regions. If we continue like this we will face a water crisis but lets not blame climate for that without any evidence.

Coming back to the broader point. We design cities for what they are likely to experience. This is true for everything be it earth quake proofing or rain or snow. If Delhi receives Mumbai kind of rains for one season there will be no Delhi left.
Yes it is another matter that many of our cities are not even designed for what they experience regularly.

Hrishikesh said...

Hot in mumbai pressure dropping

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Does any one know how to retrieve IMD AWS data?
http://www.imdaws.com/ used to work earlier.

parshuram shinde said...

Very dark here in santacruz rain started

sarfarajkhan khan said...

What will be the forecast for Monday and Tuesday in Mumbai??

Cumulus Arjun said...

Heavy rains earlier in the evening now still raining intermittently