Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Posted 14th Night:

1. BB-1 has formed at 8N and 85E in the Bay. Worked upto a Well Marked Low by 14th evening. Expected to deepen and track N/NE as mentioned earlier. Tracking towards Bangladesh.
2. Hottest in world today was Jacobabad (Pakistan ) at 47.1c. Hottest in India was Jaisalmer & Barmer  at 45.6c.

Mahabaleshwar is experiencing unprecedented daytime heat . With maximum temperatures above 35c for the last 6 days at a stretch...unusual for a station at 4500 feet above sea level.

This clip from ToI shows its days are hotter than Mumbai....


On the 14th also Mahabaleshwar recorded a high of 35.1c, while Mumbai Scruz was 34.5c.
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Posted 12th Night:

Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay....Refer Point No.4 in the MW-1 :One important Parameter forming in time. With the formation of this Low, this parameter can turn +ve.
A Low is likely to form in the Bay (around 10N , 85E) by the 14th of April. Being embedded in a trough, the Low will get good "feeding" from strong winds in the Southern and Eastern Quadrants. Thus will deepen fast. Initial estimates show a N/NE track.

Strong gusty W/NW winds are likely in South Rajasthan, Kutch and North Gujarat on 13th.

Hot Regions of the Sub Continent: Pakistan 46.5c at Shaheed Benazirabad (Hottest Place in the World on 12th ), Jacobabad, Sibbi were 46c...
India 45c at Surendranagar (Gujarat). 




15 comments:

Unknown said...

I have passed on MW 1 gist to vidarbha farmers group with due credit in marathi translation . all looking fwd fr quantum n spread ...

Abhijit said...

Badlapur max temp 42.7°C with 10% humidity today. 2nd hottest of April 2017 till now ! 🔥😰 Also an rise by 1.7c from yesterday's level.

Palghar IMD AWS too reports max as 42.4°C !

Thane max 41.3°C (Vagarian Ameya Swar reports)

Deonar max 36.6°C (Vagarian Ronnie Bhaumik reports)

rajesh said...

13th April 2017..
Max temperature in Ahmednagar on 13th was 43.2c, and minimum 15.4c. Day/Night variation 27.8c ! Also refer to previous records here :http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/p/extreme-event.html


Mahableshwar saw a high of 35.9c on 13th April. It was 35.6c on 11th April in MShwar.

sset said...

Looks similar to 2016 Cyclone Roanu - > during pre-monsoon time. Unfortunately both are missing SE India - but target NE India. Atleast they would have minimized drought. Useless westerlies are always active during pre-post monsoon giving South India sleepless nights...

sset said...

Is it not strange we have likely Bay cyclone in northern hemisphere and cyclone Cook near New Zealand at same time in southern hemisphere .. usually one part of globe is active...

Vinod Desai said...

Mahabaleshwar above mumbai in terms of temperature for last one week.
Severe heat wave in gujarat.Many places are already 45+℃.

sset said...

sorry is it not westerlies but "western disturbances".

rohit aroskar said...

But mahabaleshwar dry heat is much more bearable thn the humid heat of Mumbai

sset said...

Heat wave grips southern India - NE cyclone is culprit. Like last year pre-monsoon rains are missing. Interiors/SE depend only on LWP formation absence of which another repeated drought in process?

Vijayanand said...

Decent rain in south and east bangalore yesterday evening...10 to 20 mm.

Nilay Wankawala said...

CREDIT

Government of India
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

First Stage Forecast of Southwest Monsoon Season-2017 Rainfall's Excerpt

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long
Period Average (LPA) with an error of ± 5%.

Forecast assessment suggests 38% of probability for near normal monsoon
rainfall

Full Report Visit @ http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/press_release_view.php?ff=20170418_pr_107

Cumulus Arjun said...

IMD has told the first and much awaited first forecast of SWM 2017. It has predicted a 96% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5 percent.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit

The telegraph, calcutta India wednesday April 19,2017.

New Delhi, April 18: India's monsoon rainfall in 2017 will be close to its normal average amount, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today in its preliminary long-range forecast for the summer rainfall crucial for the country's crops and economy.

The IMD said rainfall during the four-month monsoon season starting June will be 96 per cent of the long-period average and that its first assessment suggests a 38 per cent probability for a near-normal rainfall within 96 and 104 per cent of the average.

"We expect a normal monsoon, which will be good for our agriculture and good for economy," said K.J. Ramesh, director-general of the IMD, which has this year for the first time combined two forecasting techniques to issue its monsoon forecast.

The weather agency departed from its own tradition and declined to make public the probability values for other ranges of rainfall amounts - excess, above normal, below normal, and deficient.

Ramesh and two senior meteorologists said the IMD would release the full probability distribution for different ranges of rainfall amounts in its updated long-range forecast due in early June. The updated information will provide separate forecasts for monthly rainfall in July and August and for various geographical regions of India.

Crop meteorologists view the rainfall during July and August as critical for agriculture, particularly for the transplanting of paddy. Maize, soybean, pulses, and sugarcane are among other key crops sown across the country during the summer monsoon season.

The IMD has over the past decade relied on a statistical model that measures the values of five key weather-related parameters worldwide, including sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, to issue long-range monsoon forecasts.

The Pacific sea surface temperatures determine the so-called El Nino phenomenon - a slight increase in the sea surface temperatures - that has been linked to poor monsoon behaviour in India.

Global forecasts suggest the El Nino is likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season, but IMD meteorologists assert that it is too early to say what impact, if any, it will have on the 2017 monsoon.

Statistically, an El Nino year is more likely to be a deficient monsoon year.

"But there is no one-to-one relationship between El Nino and the monsoon," said D. Sivananda Pai, head of the forecasting team at IMD Pune.

Among 15 El Nino years between 1951 and 2016, nine years had deficient monsoon (below 90 per cent of the long period average), while four had monsoon levels between 90 and 100 per cent of the average, and two years experienced rainfall greater than 100 per cent of the average.

The 2017 forecast, for the first time, incorporates a dynamic global climate forecasting model that uses computers and real-time weather data from around the world to generate forecasts of the monsoon's performance.

"The forecasts for the 2017 monsoon from the statistical model and the dynamic model are both 96 per cent," said Madhavan Rajeevan, a senior meteorologist and secretary, the ministry of earth sciences, which had supported the development of the dynamic model.

Senior meteorologists explained that including the dynamic model into the 2017 forecast has "complicated" the probability distribution of rainfall amounts because the process of "reconciling" the probabilities generated by the statistical model forecast and the dynamical model forecast is difficult.

"Rather than release multiple numbers that might appear confusing, we decided that we will release only the highest probability figure which is for near normal monsoon," a senior scientist said.

Ankit patel said...
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Ankit patel said...

Larkana(sindh) Pak recprded 50℃ today...First 50 of the world in 2017....which is highest max temp ever in April for Asia may be in world i have to check....Larkana broke its own record for all time high in April which is 48.5 in April 2010...note all time highest max for larkana is 53.5 which is recorded on 26th may 2010
Also a Highest max temp of 2017 in world broke this year's record of 48.2 recorded at tarcoola (south aus) on 9th feb 2017.....Climatologists says heat peak up trend at this time of year is earliest ever in history.....

Heat peaked up earlier in fact 10-15 days earlier than avg over south asian continents and sub continents...will boost the monsoon process.......if other parameters will be ok than we expect monsoon to hit kerala earlier this year......it is early to say about exact monsoon arrival date.....will post soon with estimatation of monsoon arrival date....