Sunday, January 29, 2017

Posted Sunday Night:

Hottest place in Asia on Sunday 29th January was Honavar (Karnatak, India) which recorded 37.4c. Again, the second place in Asia also goes to an Indian place, Panjim ( Sunny Goa) at 36.8c.
Coldest place in Asia is Delyankir ( Russia) which recorded a low of -56.9c.

Fresh Western disturbance F-1 will affect North Pakistan and Western Himalayan States of India on 2nd/3rd February. Precipitation will affect the plains of Northern & Western  India ( North and South Punjab/Haryana/ Delhi/North Rajasthan and West U.P.and Uttarkhand) and Pakistan (Punjab and Upper Sind) on 3rd/4th. More details here on 31st as movement gets more specifically clear.

Cloudy weather for Karachi on 3rd/4th February. Rainfall depends on the strength estimation of the WD on 31st.
Western Nepal will get rains on 4th/5th, with rains spreading to rest of Nepal on 6th.However, Kathmandu will get showers on 31st January from the current WD . Light rains from F-1
Very strong winds with rains in Abu Dhabi on 2nd and 3rd February.

Mumbai: The Weekend, Saturday and Sunday was warm and hot in Mumbai, with the days at 35/36c.We can expect a slightly better day on Monday at 33/34c and still a further fall on Tuesday at 31/32c in the daytime. Minimum night temperature will however be constant at around 18c.Expecting another cold spell from 7th February

Pune will be between 31c and 12c next 3 days.Expecting another cold spell from 7th February

In comments, See a write up on this year's NEM by our reader Murildhar sent to me by mail.

5 comments:

rajesh said...

Murallidhar
28 jan 2017

To,

Rajaesh

Sir,
as I stated, i had prapared the small article on north-east monsoon failure 2016 below
The north-eaast monsoon over southerna state failed miserably despite the imd prediction of normal rains. I think this ias attributed to the formation of depresson over Bay later in to cyclone that followed north-easterly directly acroos WB-Bangladesh and adjoining north-estatern state which persisted over a weeks resulted dryspell in the south. Another cyclone named Kyant formed in same region followed same path, however it recurved north, later NW,thenW andSW moving along the Chennai latitude and this had resulted onset monsoon over TN on Oct.30. However,this was followed by lull in the rain for couple of week, before fresh system developed in cyclone in last week of November this cyclone vardha brought record rains to the TN and adjoining areas.Still, The state has been really missing the familiar North-east monsoon due to absence of any rain producing system in the Bay.This had persisted till the end of dec. led to disastrous drought after several years after 1995 or even 1974 when the deficit rose to 60%. But, last year on the contrary we had extraordinary rain in the state due to the presence of rain producing system in the bay tha followed W/NWly that brought rains. Tami nadu has been blessed by excess rains during the elnino year than la nina year thar brig less rains.
Unlike summer monsoon, the north-east monsoon is associated with westward moving Lp systesm across the TN,Andhra. Any recuravture of this system in the Bay in to N/NE result drought in the state like that of 1981,1982, etc.etc.


regards
muralidahr

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir can we expect cold waves after 6th in north west india?

rajesh said...

Anoop: Yes, colder conditions are very much possible in NW/N India after F-1. The Low at sea levels is expected to pass over Punjab, so winds for a day around 4th/5th will be from South over Delhi.Soon the winds turn West an then North and bring in colder air.

Unknown said...

Woww
I am waiting for that in abu dhabi

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 31 January 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range.

Climate model outlooks indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Most models surveyed expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm during this period, meaning La Niña is the least likely scenario for winter/spring 2017. It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

Next update expected on 14 February 2017