Monday, February 15, 2016

Daily Highest Temp in India will be put up in "Flash Snippets" till 40c is reached >>>>>>    

Posted Wednesday 17th Night:
Partly cloudy weather prevailed in parts of Saurashtra and East Gujarat. Mumbai too was partly cloudy with medium to high clouds.

Some rainfall occurred in parts of Oman, with Rustaq getting 6 mms, Qaboos Port 4.4mms and Sohar 3 mms. Al Amerat had 2.8 mms.
Dubai was overcast.

Karachi was very windy, with dry winds blowing between 42-48 kmph. Reported gusts reached 53 kmph. Visibility was reduced to 1 km by evening due to blowing dust, and the port city had a low humidity at 12%.

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Posted Monday 15th, Night:

Mumbai: Next 3 days 16th/17th/18th). Partly cloudy with rise in night temperatures. Nights will get warmer, as the day gets partly shady. Day temperatures will be 2/3c higher than the last few days.
Pune: Getting gradually warmer, reaching 35c by Thursday. Partly cloudy on Tuesday and Wednesday tends to make the nights warmer at 17/18c.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy, but rise in night temperatures. Light drizzle in some rgions on Thursday. Days will see a rise in temperatures to 30c. Rains on Saturday cooling the days again.

Hyderabad (India) remains dry at around 34/35c next few days.

Karachi: Gusty NE winds on Tuesday afternoon, and more on Wednesday afternoon. Could gust to around 45 kmph. Thursday can also be very windy at 45-50 kmph.

Outlook for 16th/17th and 18th:
Tuesday 16th: Light rains in M.P.and Chattisgarh. In the South, light showers likely in T.N. and Kerala.
There is a remote chance of surprise light rain in some patchy areas of Konkan and Eastern Gujarat regions. Partly cloudy in the regions.

Wednesday 17th: Some rains in M.P. and Chattisgarh. Cloudy with light rain in Eastern Rajasthan. T.N. and Kerala will continue to get showers in some regions.
Day temperatures rising in NW India, North India, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Places in Vidharbha will touch 35c alongwith some Saurashtra cities.

Thursday 18th: Some isolated rains in Rajasthan. Few pockets of T.N. and Kerala get some showers on Thursday also.
Days getting warmer in Gujarat and Maharshtra. Ahmadabad can rise to 36c. Vidharbh may rise to 35/37c.
W.D. F-3 approaching extreme North.

Showers likely in Dubai and North Oman (Muscat) on Wednesday.

13 comments:

ameya said...

Good Morning Sir.

Are winters over for Mumbai/ Thane - western belt. Does the next WD expected around 19th likely to cool down the north and west or is a mild one affecting upper reaches only.

Can we expect any fall in max and min temp again after 20th or later.

Seems summers are likely to set early this year with delhi reaching 30deg this week itself...

Zohair said...

Sir Whats the reason of this gusty winds?

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology


Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 16 February 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño slowly weakening
The 2015–16 El Niño continues its gradual decline. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooling, and beneath the surface, cooler-than-average waters are advancing into the eastern Pacific. The atmosphere is also showing some signs of a declining El Niño. Trade winds are now the strongest they have been in nearly two years, though may weaken again briefly in the coming fortnight.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. International climate models suggest neutral is most likely for the second half of the year. However, La Niña in 2016 cannot be ruled out, and a repeat El Niño appears unlikely. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events often brings above average rainfall to some—but not all—parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very warm across the majority of the basin which may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia. The southern hemisphere Indian Ocean remains at record warm levels, with January 2016 adding to the string of record warm months observed since mid-2015.

rajesh said...

Ameya: A lot of questions asked....:-)
There will be an initial heating up before the Western Disturbance arrives over India. Full fledged precipitations from F-3 will be over Kashmir, HP, Uttarkahand, and also to less extent in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi and west UP.
So, next week, we see a drop in Mumbai temps from the rise this week. Drop may not be as low as recent, as the average base has risen by the weekend.

Zohair:. I expect gusty winds in SE Sindh, and Karachi due to the Low embedded in an pper air trough at around 5000-7000 feet off the Sindh coast in the Sea. So,the sea level pressure charts will show close isobars over the SE Sindh region, meaning windy conditions.The isobars 1012, 1014 and 1016 will run very close to each other. Close and near isobars means winds are strong.

Shreyas Dhavale said...

Seems like places even in Chattisgarh and Odisha have a fair chance of reaching 40°C first.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Bhubaneshwar becomes the first city to enter highest temperature in india which is out of any entries received for the contest-

Evewrest said...

Yup. Bhubaneshwar was 5°C above normal at 36.8°C yesterday. No wonder nobody picked it up.

Salim Ramani said...

Central India`s Temperature is also rising
Brahmapuri (Maharashtra) Non Imd Station record 37.7 today .

For more detail please click on the following link
Link ( http://imdnagpur.gov.in/seldtCw000.php ) .

rajesh said...

Nilay/Evewrest: Bhubaneshwar was the first to touch 40c in 2009 on 25th Feb and again in 2012 on 26th Feb..

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks sir. Just missed today by .8 *. Sir flash snippets making the contest live and active.

Narayanan Ky said...

Still .8 to go so officially 40 is yet to be reachable..never knew Bhubaneswar gets so warm in February itself

rajesh said...

I do not have records prior to 1985...but after 1985, the earliest first 40c has been on 22nd Feb at Akola in 2006

rajesh said...

Salim Ramani: Bhrahmapuri is an IMD station...but highest on Thursday in Maharashtra was Malegaon at 37.8c