Monday, February 01, 2016

Posted Thursday Night

Weekend forecast for Friday 5th/Saturday 6th and Sunday 7th:

Mumbai Santacruz which was at 14c and Colaba at 19c on Thursday, will see the same temperature range on Friday, with the day at around 29/30c. Slight rise on Saturday and Sunday.
Pune , on the weekend, will be in the range of 33c in the day and 11/12c at night.
Maharashtra night temperatures rising from current trend this weekend...

A Western Disturbance (F-1) will cover the extreme North of Pakistan with rains and snow on Saturday 6th. On 6th, cloudy weather will also cover the Indian hill states of Kashmir and HP. Light precipitation will start from Saturday, increasing on Sunday. 
Srinagar will be cloudy on the weekend with light precipitation on Sunday, day's high dropping to 10c on Suday after about 14/15c on Saturday. 
Sunday 7th, precipitation will also be covering Uttarkhand and West UP.

Delhi NCR and Punjab and Haryana will be partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. Night temperatures rising this weekend.
F-2 will approach the North India and Pakistan region from 9th February.

1 comment:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology


Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 2 February 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Further easing of El Niño
El Niño remains strong, but continues its gradual decline. Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016.

Close to the equator, the surface of the Pacific Ocean has now cooled by 0.5 °C since the El Niño peaked in late 2015. Below the ocean surface, cooler than average waters now extend into the central tropical Pacific Ocean. In the atmosphere, trade winds have recently returned to near-normal levels in the central and eastern Pacific, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been strongly negative in recent weeks. During Australia's northern wet season, it is not unusual to see big fluctuations in the SOI due to the passage of tropical systems, and hence its value may not be representative of the overall ENSO state.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models suggest the neutral state is most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Niña, with a repeat El Niño assessed as very unlikely. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above-average rainfall to some, but not all, parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very warm across the majority of the basin which may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.