Monday, December 07, 2015


Tamilnadu -: 630 mms (+ 64 %) from 1 Oct to  7 Dec 2015 (North East Monsoon)

Surpassing averages like never before - 
Annual rains till  now (1 Jan to 6 Dec 2015)-

Tamilnadu : Chennai AP..  242 cms (+75 %)  ,  Palayamkottai .. 100 cms (+37 %) 

South Interior Karnataka: Bengaluru .. 128 cms (+31 %)

Rayalaseema (Andhra Pradesh) : Tirupati ..164 cms  (+73 %)  , Arogyavaram..131 cms  (+70%)

(Refer the map below for details..Click and enlarge for better view ) 



Narayanan Ky said...

Rohit very nicely captured. It is a rare scenario to have east coast on par with west coast. El nino has triggered this event probably.

Narayanan Ky said...

With natural barriers and terrain West coast can handle these rains with ease. But, East coast being mostly flat area which is low lying is struggling to cope up with it.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Even without this year's extremely heavy rain in south east India there was no evidence of climate change/desertification in south east India. If two below average monsoons can be considered as a sign of desertification then most parts of the country except south east India are on the verge of desertification.

And yes, there is a such a thing as too much rain and that is exactly what has been witnessed in some parts of south east India. There is nothing good about receiving 30-40 cms in 24 hours that has been your benchmark of good rain.

We should conclude based only on hard data(both quality and quantity of data is very important).

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir so EL NINO helped NEM to outperform this season... I remember your article at the begining of NEM season and el nino correlation

sset said...

Thanks Saurabh accept all your points... but any pattern changes are proposed by cumulative observations over period of years and not by single or few years. Anyway myself am just common person with no actual weather domain.

sset said...

Also thanks to Rohit for rear TN treat! Remember few years back vagaries had to stop NEM blog as it had hardly rained this time it was reverse..

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 8 December 2015

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

2015 El Niño near its peak
The strong 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. While sea surface temperatures remain close to record-high values, some El Niño indicators are now showing signs of easing. However, the current El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.

El Niño indicators, notably sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, and cloudiness near the Date Line, remain well above El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has eased back into neutral values, though this may be short-lived: the SOI tends to be more variable during the northern Australian wet season (October–April). Model outlooks and the strength of the current event suggest El Niño thresholds may continue to be exceeded well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

The 2015–16 El Niño is strong, and likely to rank in the top three events of the past 50 years. Presently, several key indicators fall short of their 1997–98 and 1982–83 values, both in the ocean (e.g. sub-surface temperatures, which have peaked around +8 °C this year, compared to +12 °C in 1997–98) and atmosphere (e.g. SOI, for which monthly values peaked around –20, while 1982–83 had several months at –30).

El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. However, on average an El Niño summer brings below-average rainfall across northern Queensland, and a slight drying influence across the southeast of Australia. Conversely, inland Western Australia often sees above-average rainfall at this time of year during El Niño.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very much warmer than average across the majority of the basin. This basin-wide warmth may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia.

Vijayanand said...

Winter climate finally in bangalore. Clear blue sky. Nights are cold and day is warm. Frankly craving for normal climate in bangalore after cloudy-wet november.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...


This winter, so far, we are witnessing above normal temperatures in most parts of India. Precipitation is below normal at least in the northern parts despite a number of western disturbances.
Will this precipitation trend continue for the northern parts?
If this precipitation trend continues then will it lead to thicker fog this year resulting in significantly colder day time highs.
Please share your views in your next post.

sset said...

Nilay - el-nino or jet streams -> or any correlation between them?

rajesh said...

Saurabh: I have mentioned precipitation coming from the D-1 (western Disturbance). Though it may not coever the deficit.Nights will get cooler from Weekend.

Nilay Wankawala said...

sir from your 17th october post- i referred to this point-

Research that was published recently by Pankaj Kumar and M.Rajeevan of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, K. Rupa Kumar, currently with the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva and A.K. Sahai, also of IITM, examined the relationship between the “El Nino/Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) and the North-East Monsoon between 1901 and 2000.

They found that the correlation between ENSO and the north-east monsoon had fluctuated during this period. The relationship was positive and strong from 1930 to 1950, and then became weak for the next two and a half decades. But since 1976, the relationship has picked up and become strong again. This, the scientists noted, was “diametrically opposite” to the relationship between ENSO and the south-west monsoon, which has weakened greatly in recent decades.

Moreover, North-East Monsoon rainfall during the El Nino years after 1976 had on average become considerably more copious than during the period from 1950 to 1976. The scientists pointed to evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation during an El Nino were now strengthening easterly wind flows, thus bringing more moisture to the subcontinent and increasing rainfall during the North-East Monsoon.