Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Relentless Heat in India and Pakistan.

High day temperatures of Wednesday, 30th May:

In Pakistan, Sibi touched 49.0c, Jacobabad touch 48.5c, While Multan sees 48.0c. Sukkur soared to 47c. 
Islamabad saw an unusual high of 43c.

Wednesday,30th, in India, it was 47c at not only the usual  places in Vid. like Brahmapuri reached 47.6c Chandrapur saw 47c and Wardha at 46.9c , Allahbad at 46..8c, Nagpur at 46.6c, Agra at 46.5c and c, but the 47c has crept into Punjab with Amritsar touching 47.0c and Hissar at 46.4c today.

The Rajasthan Desert is in the 45/46c range with Ganganagar reaching 47.4c and Churu 47.2c. Bikaner and Kota at 45.8c and Jaisalmer seeing 45.4c,along with Delhi ( S'Jung) also at 45.0c on Wednesday.
Nagpur's minimum bottomed at only 33.6c today.

Absence of a WD and strong dry Westerlies have pushed up the temperature levels in the region. Before another WD moves in, we can expect the 
Rajasthan region to touch 48c and places in Punjab/Haryana soaring to 46/47c in the next 2 days. Delhi will remain in the 44/45c range till Saturday.

In Pakistan, Sindh region could touch 50c by Thursday/Friday, and Sukkur possibly reaching 48c.
From Monday, 4th, we can expect some relief, as SW winds start pushing thru the Sindh/Kutch coastline into the NW plains of the sub-continent. Moisture laden winds will sweep into the NW regions and bring much needed relief to the region, from Saturday.
Karachi could see some clouding and drizzle by the weekend.

Consequent to the formation of 92B, the Eastern States of Chattisgarh and Orissa got the much needed relief from the heat. Compared with last 8 days, Wednesday's highest was much lower at Titlagarh (44.5c) and Jharsuguda (44.3c). The hottest in the state was Malkangiri at 45c. Now these are lower than what the state has been seeing the last full week, 46/47c at several places.

92B, now B1, will move N/NE, and will be the depression that was forecasted by Vagaries to hit Bangladesh (see June Forecast on Current Page). B1 is currently at 17.7N and 91E. Expecting heavy rainfall in Coastal Bengal, and pulling up the SWM into the NE states. 
Nepal will get some soothing rains as the system B1 moves inland/

Arabian Sea:
A low AS-1, will form in the Arabian Sea around the 2nd of June around the 10N and 60E region. System, AS-1, is expected to move Northwards and deepen to some extent initially for a couple of days. By the 5th, it will weaken and fade out in the Sea out before hitting land. 

Naturally, even a nominal system near the coast will "suck in" the Monsoon moisture, and weaken the SWM over Kerala. As the arrival of SWM coincides with the System, the monsoon will have an initial "resistance" to advance into Kerala, but move in it will. As it moves into Kerala by the 2nd/3rd of June, SWM could then suddenly weaken temporarily in Kerala, as the Arabian Sea low takes away all the moisture, and diverts the winds away. 

If the low, even for 3 days after forming, moves North, it can always pull up a weak SWM along the Karnataka/Goa coast by the 4th of June, as per Vagaries' earlier forecast, and maybe into Mumbai by the 9th of June, a few days earlier than expected.

The SWM can, however, may be restricted to the coast, and interior Mah. and Karnataka could be almost dry till the winds get re-organised. 
TN will remain devoid of the monsoon current till next week.

A deepening seasonal low in Sindh/Rajasthan at 994 mb in early June will draw moisture and clouds with strong SW winds into Saurashtra/Kutch and Coastal Sindh (East) regions, from Monday,4th June.

Later, some light rainfall and windy conditions could be expected along Saurashtra coast and Sindh (Pakistan) coast on 7th/8th.

Check Current Weather Page Regularly.


Pavan said...

Sir, why not westrn mah and majr parts of int karnataka heat up whn comprd to telangana vid orissa

Anonymous said...

so sir can we expect pre monsoon shower early in mumbai before 3/4 of june as you mention in your earlier blog

Rajesh said...

Pavan:Genarally, the dry warm NW winds from the Raj/Delhi and Up plains move down in the same direction into Orissa, Chatisgarh and Vid and Ap. These are NW and generally the western Mah regions are spared from extreme heat. But sometimes the NW winds sweep into N.Madhya Mah which heats up. Jalgaon can go to 45c also.
Anonymous: I don't think it will be earlier than forecasted. I keep the same forecast put up last. Dates will be same.

junaid said...

@rajesh u havent said about the quantum of premonsoon shower???iremmber last year ur quantum forecast for the first showers were very accurate!!

Rajesh said...

junaid: Hello, I thought you have stopped reading Vagaries.No comments from you for some time now.
Ok..i'll try to put quantum next time...

junaid said...

@rajesh reading vagaries has given my interest in weather a new dimension !!!no day of mine goes without reading ths superb blog!!in fact i always wish that u update us daily!!!:):)actually mah engineering exams r going on !! my exams r at avery bad time ,,,coz this is the tym wen we guys anticipate the arrival of monsoon!!thanks for creating such a wonderful blog:):)

junaid said...

@rajesh why the cities of gujarat r in normal range ,,,wen adjoining rajasthan and nw india is getting baked in the unforgiving heat,??,,,also wen i was seeing the weather of himachal cities i noticed that the diurnal range of kullu to be very unusual max 36 nd minimum 15???why is it lykk tht,,on the contrary in manali the diurnal range is nt vry much!!

1st June..SWM Progress  For the first time after 2014 this summer season (april-may) , Delhi Safdarjung  has not recorded a single heatwave....