Status of low formation in Arabian Sea same as given Below, no additional narration at this stage. Shall update in the evening if required.
Check Current Weather Page for June rainfall estimate (Revised) and SWM progress Map updated.
Low in Arabian Sea ?
A couple of International Forecasting Models estimate a low pressure to form in the Arabian Sea, around 10N and 60E by the 1st of June. There are few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation in the region around that time frame.
With 2 diverse opinions by several International Models, it becomes confusing for the average reader to actually judge or estimate the fact, especially at a critical time when the SWM is advancing along the West Coast of India.
Citing the "patch" of warmer SST in the Central regions of the Arabian Sea (around 55-60E), it is possible that a low pressure system can form in the region by the 1st/2nd June. A no. will be given when it forms.
But, as it travels North, it can encounter a slightly colder sea, thus limiting its growth. The low, initially could be at 1000 mb, can deepen to 996 mb by the 4th of June, before it starts weakening again from the 5th.
Naturally, even a nominal system near the coast will "suck in" the Monsoon moisture, and weaken the SWM over Kerala.
As the arrival of SWM coincides with the System, the monsoon will have an initial "resistance" to advance into Kerala, but move in it will.
As it moves into Kerala by the 2nd/3rd of June, it could then suddenly weaken temporarily in Kerala, as the Arabian Sea low take away all the moisture, and diverts the winds away.
If the low, even for 3 days after forming, moves North, it can always pull up a weak SWM along the Karnataka/Goa coast by the 4th of June, as per Vagaries' earlier forecast, and maybe into Mumbai by the 8th of June, earlier than expected.
The SWM can, however, may be restricted to the coast, and interior Mah. and Karnataka could be almost dry.
A deepening seasonal low in Sindh/Rajasthan at 994 mb in early June will draw moisture and clouds with strong winds into Saurashtra/Kutch and Coastal Sindh (East) regions.
30th May: 33-28c. Partly cloudy with humidity rising.
31st May/1st June: 34-29c. Overcast morning with light drizzle in some parts of the city. Clouds getting sparse in the afternoon.
2nd June; 35-29c. Cloudy morning and hot afternoon. Thunder clouds developing by afternoon/evening n the Eastern sky.
3rd June: 34-28c. Cloudy and humid. Thunder clouds in the afternoon/evening with some rain in parts of the city.