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Analysis and Discussions on Mw-4 Put up on Inter Active Page of Vagaries:
Very Briefly, explaining the Factors considered for Seasonal Forecast:
If we take into account, that the ENSO will be Neutral, but "leaning" towards a weakish El-Nino phase by, say, end August, then:
a) There will be a drop in the systems originating from the Bay. If at all there will be weak depressions just about reaching Central India and fizzling out.
Hence could result in rainfall deficit for the NW regions, including lower Sindh in Pakistan. Central India and adjoining areas will be well covered.
b) In such a scenario, even the 200 hps jet streams would bend slightly Southwards, and the "low" at that level will be dislodged. could bring in the odd WD even in July. Could bring some heavy rainfall to Upper Pakistan regions. Hence, rainfall could be normal/excess in rest Northern Pakistan and Kashmir. Though technically they will be Monsoon rains.
c) Due to systems reluctant to track southwards, we may see lesser rains in the Southern Peninsula regions. Even the support to the west coast (South of Mumbai)may be lesser than normal. Hence, rain shadow regions in TN and interior Karnataka may be slightly deficient. Lesser gradient along the West coast will show lower rainfall in Kerala, specially in June.
d) Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji seems the likely candidate for the poll).
This is a very early estimates based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.
Things, if and when they change (drastically) will be posted and Vagaries readers will be kept well informed, of any variation in the forecast.
June Only Forecast:
Rainfall expected in Major Cities for June 2012:
Mumbai: 550-600 mms
Chennai: 50-60 mms
New Delhi: 50-55 mms
Banglore: 90-110 mms
Pune: 120-130 mms.
Surat: 250-280 mms
These are my personal views, and should be depended upon commercially or otherwise.
Check Inter Active Page for more Monsoon Information