Tuesday, May 15, 2012



Exclusive Mumbai Weather Outlook will be published on Sunday, 20th May @ 10.30pm IST: On Mumbai Page.
                                 

A low likely to form in South Arabian Sea around the 19th of May. It will be probably in the 60E and 10N area. Due to the dominant High Pressure in the Northern Arabian Sea, the system will not gain much, and will track Westwards. 


A low (B-2), gaining to depression strength, could form in the Bay. Initially, on the 23rd, it may hover around the Andaman Islands, and then intensify and move first Northwards. Later, it seems at this stage it would probably cross the Bangladesh/Myanmar coast as a depression, or a deep depression. Difficult at this stage to estimate the exact track and date.





Temperature Anomaly Last Week:






Weather Developments likely this week from Tuesday, 15th of May 










M-3 precipitates rain over Northern Pakistan on Wednesdy/Thursday. Islamabad will get light rains on these days keeping the temperatures in the 35c-20c range.


Moves into Northern India on Thursday thru Saturday. Rainfall will be light in Punjab and Haryana and moderate in Kashmir and HP and Utteranchal. 
M-3 will not move into Nepal but track NNE.


Expecting a drop in day temperatures by around 2c in Kutch and South Rajastan regions, and Balochistan and Coastal Sindh (Pakistan) on Thursday. Karachi to be around 34/35c ehile sukkur remains at 43c.


Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday will see Moderate rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. Decrease in rains in these states from Friday.
Heavy rains in NE states.


MW-6 will be published on 19th May.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello rajesh bhai now as the monsoon time comming soon everyone are attracting to your blog because of your accurate prediction.
I wanted to know that how is the south west monsoon this time is it normal or below it
Is there any la nina ,al nino effect or something else I don't know
Also I thing that less heating in the continent will effect the monsoon current is it right?

rajesh said...

anonymous:shall explain your points on Saturday and sunday in my articles. Thanks.

sset said...

Way you are writing questions - convey you are Gujrati - correct? Our Rajesh Sir is scientific person and not like magician making predictions.

By the way word al nino sounds amusing.

Pavan said...

I am forcd to cmt on sset statement that science s nt restrictd to any person state or community evry person has a right 2 kmw abt it and rajesh sir can convey r answr d questn whn askd n any type of language r no harm, i appriciate rajesh sirs approach towards dealing with met science and i suggest al readers 2 jn hands with rajesh sir to make our own community whch can make an wonderful endevour in helping d society and ordinary laymen with ths untouchable part of science i request al readers 2 cmt on ths aspect.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,
can you please throw some light on this index,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Figures/Index/wyindex_total_forecast.gif

Thanks, Regards,
Ananth

Anonymous said...

Please write about TAMILNADU WEATHER also. Thank you.

rajesh said...

anonymous:Would like to write and discuss more on the TN weather. Would appreciate a good response and feedback from there. any feedback eitherway helps me get the correct picture and helps in forecasting.
BTW where rae you from..i mean which city in TN ?
Ananth: The performance and strength is studied using various factors such as long-term records of monsoon rainfall, sea-level pressure, sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind data.
And several complicated indices are tabulated. Each differently and variable.
One such is Webster and Yang using the varying wind speeds at different levels ,called wind shear, to see the SWM performance.
Details would take pages, but you may refer to wikipedia for all the details.