Thursday, March 18, 2010

El Nino may weaken and its impact on the monsoon may wane:

The occurance of the El-Nino weakening ,could be a “positive sign” for India’s monsoon and a repeat of last year’s drought could be unlikely.
The driest monsoon rainfall last year in more than three decades caused a drought in half the country and forced record imports of sugar, pulses and cereals. Event of a normal rainfall will aid crops, and help control inflation from the highest level in 16 months.

“The year following an El Nino year (i.e. this year) is considered to be favorable for Indian monsoons,” Siddhartha Sanyal and Dipti Saletore, economists at Edelweiss Securities Ltd., said in a report today. El Nino “had been one of the main reasons for the occurrence of three droughts in India in the recent past.”

Current Condition in Brief:
-Central Pacific sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long-term average.
-The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific also remains warmer than the long-term average. However, the sub-surface water in the central Pacific has cooled over the past two weeks.
-The SOI has remained steady over the past week after increasing in value after a rapid fall in February. The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is -8.
-Trade winds are slightly weaker than normal across most of the tropical Pacific.
-Cloudiness near the date-line remains well above average. Cloudiness near the date-line across the equatorial Pacific is another important indicator of El Niño conditions, as it typically increases near and to the east of the dateline during these episodes. Cloudiness near the date-line has increased over the past fortnight and remains well above average
-Most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the initial begining of the Northern hemisphere summer.

In short, current conditions favour an active El-Nino, but,
The El Nino condition over the Central Pacific Ocean was expected to fade out from July onwards, according to model forecasts.


anant said...

Whats your assessment on the possibility Dipole devoping in the Indian ocean this monsoon.Is it too early to predict on this.
A perfect scenario would be a La nina and an positive IOD
I just started following your blog, very comprehensive and relevant .

Rajesh said...

Anant, I am not an expert on IOD, but still studying its behaviour. Yes a bit early. But, if u see my previuos blogs, I start putiing up a Monsoon Watch series from mid April. Can mention in that. Thanks for your encouraging words.

 Posted 18th April: