Monday, September 07, 2009

Our ‘low’ over the Bay underwent intensification twice to become a deep depression, and become a numbered tropical storm, 03B. Central India and north-west India were spared from an expected heavy rains, as 03B took and went along a north-northwest direction track, and is estimated to keep moving to the north-west from here, and likely to merge with the W.D. in 2 days.
As a result, it is expected to precipitate heavy rains in U.P. and later, after a day in Uttarakhand.

Coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa have recieved good rains in the weekend due to the presence of the offshore trough along the west coast being fed in by the bay system.

But the weakening of the trough is seen as a result of the 03B getting dissolved, andhence, from this week (Tuesday) itself), i see a gradual weakening of the rain along the west coast.

The week the withdrawal of monsoon from north Gujarat, adjoining Rajasthan is possible. The step by step withdrawal of monsoon from more parts of northwest India will be monitored on its commencement.

Maharashtra, inland, too will have very little rain this week, and evening thundershowers may pop up by end of the week.

The IMD had mentioned about the likely formation of a ‘low’ in the Bay, but the Bay SST has reduced , as seen in the image, and has I have doubts as to upto what strenght the new low will muster up . The sea temperature in central bay has fallen dropped to some extent.

For Mumbai: Showers on Monday will be reducing late afternoon,with rain amounting to 15-20 mm for the day. Sunny intervals late afternoon.
Rains tapering off and much less (less than 10 mm) on Tuesday/Wednessday. Not much rain to bear up with next 48 hrs.

Post Script:I got an amusing query last night as to whether Mumbai has crossed the 100" mark rain this year. I replied in the negative, and was later told that it was reported so in the ToI on Saturday 5th. On going thru the report on page 3 of the edition, I quote from the article- "This brought the city's total rainfall during the season to 3375.2 mm, almost 75% of the annual rainfall." What was intended was the total was calculated by adding the 2 totals of Colaba and S'cruz ! If more rain guages across the city were added, it could have been much more !!
It was a bit misleading and not explained properly in the press.

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