Saturday, September 12, 2009

As mentioned previously in blogs, on Thursday, the well-marked low over west Uttar Pradesh merged with the W.D. present over north India as well as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu and Kashmir.

The result ? Very heavy rains and snow in the upper reaches of H.P. Rains figures upto 300 mms were recorded and many a places in the Punjab, U.P.and Haryayna received between 50 – 150 mms. In my blog last week, I had predicted good rains in the north due to this interaction but these rains figures are beyond my expectations !!

Some of the extremely heavy, and unusual rain recorded on Friday morning were:

HARYANA: (14 cm and above) Assandh 29, Nuh 28, Ferozepore Jhirka and Mewat 27 each, Nagina and Tazewala 23 each, Pataudi and Gohana 21 each, Jind and Massani Barrage 20 each, Berikhas 19, Naraingarh, Sohna, Safidon, Bawal and Jagadhari 17 each, Indri and Rohtak 16 each
HIMACHAL PRADESH: (6 cm and above) Pachhad, Karsog and Kandaghat 13 each, Dharampur and Solan 12 each, Jubbal, Kotkhai, Renuka and Paonta 11 each, Shimla, Nahan, Rajgarh and Kasauli 10 each
EAST RAJASTHAN: (6 cm and above) Kotkasim 31, Tizara 20, Kishangarhwas 15, Ramgarh, Kumbher, Kaman and Deeg 11 each, Kathumer 10,



Consequently, the seasonal rain deficit has been reduced to 20 per cent as on Wednesday (September 9), and will be further reduced by Friday.

But, due to the conditions of monsoon withdrawal, the rains could not actually “penetrate” into the western regions of Rajasthan, or rather, the system did not move westwards into the “no monsoon” area.

Now, as the system is getting weak, I personally see, the further withdrawal of the monsoon from the Rajasthan/ Gujarat regions these next 2/3 days. Maybe Western M.P. later.

For Maharashtra region, convective rains, that is, evening thundershowers, will be frequent now, a sure sign of the reversing of the rains in the state.
Generally this phenomena is common and expected for around 10 days, before the actual withdrawal.

Good and heavy thundershowers will drench all the regions, the interiors specially, of the Southern peninsula (Karnatak/Goa/A.P.and interior T.N.)next 10 days. Sure to lessen, the deficit substantially.

Mumbai: From Sunday thru Thursday, be prepared for evening thundershowers roughly with an interval of a day or two in-between. Afternoon/evening will see the skies darkening, and some showers in the evening/night will be the sequence of events.

An overnight thundercell from the ghats can , on some occasions, drift over Mumbai, especially early morning and precipitate some rain.



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