Wednesday, September 09, 2009

The expected process of Monsoon Withdrawal has commenced from the North Gujarat and west Rajasthan regions. The parameters indicating this are the low humidity in the mentioned areas (see IMD map alongwith), and day temperatures have begun to rise appreciably in northwest Rajasthan due to post monsoon conditions. The mercury has touched 40 deg C at Jaisalmer and a few other places.
And the nights have started getting cooler in the extreme north (thats where it starts from).
Like, places in Ladhak have dipped to -3c ( Chushul) and Srinagar reached 8.8 c yesterday.

Also, the western end of the monsoon trough (axis), normally fixed across the border, almost near Arabia, has now shifted into India. The exrtreme western low is in Rajasthan, as the MSLP map from IMD indicates.

Its a matter of these conditions persisting for another couple of days, and the monsoon can be considered withdrawn from this region.
The next W.D. will result in this winter's first snowfall in the higher reaches of Kashmir and H.P.
For furhter progress of the monsoon shifting southwards, we will wait for the current low to fizzle out.

The deep depression has been degraded as a well-marked low-pressure area and moved from west into Madhya Pradesh.
Meanwhile, the Bay has a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation on Tuesday. But, as per my last blog, I do not see it gaining much.
The IMD update said that Monday’s offshore trough from Maharashtra to Kerala had weakened, reducing the intensity of the rains over the region.
Next 2 days, i see rain only along the path of the weakening low. Wednessday rains can be expected in M.P/ north Maharashtra (Nasik and Jalgaon regions and Aurangabad). And on Thursday lesser rains in eastern regions of Gujarat, and in south Rajasthan to some extent.

After Thursday, rainfall will decrease markedly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka and most of the southern region, till the end of this week.
For Mumbai: A few showers in some parts on Wednessday evening. Rain decreasing from Thursday thru Saturday. As rainfall will be meagre, tendency to gat warmer after Thursday.

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