Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The much anticipated low in the bay has formed, and as discussed , intensified into a depression as on the morning of the 16th, and further into a deep depression by the same evening. Now that translate into very heavy rains, upto 250mms, in Orissa and parts of Chattisgarh, during the next 2 days. Paradeep in Orissa has already recorded 16cms. and several other places between 9-11cms. today.
The D.D. is expected to cross the Orissa coast by the night of the 16th., its centre was just 50 kms from the coast as on 17.30 IST.and move westwards towards M.P.
Meanwhile, the Upper Air Circulation over Gujarat since Sunday, is still persisting over the region. As a result, very heavy rains hs been recorded over several cities in Gujarat and Konkan. Very heavy rainfall of 20cms was recorded at Junagadh in Saurashtra region. Some stations in Saurashtra have had almost 250mm-300mm in the last 48hrs.
Now, the monsoon still may not relent. As mentioned earlier, the much delayed West Pacific Typhoon activity may yet throw up another system in the bay. ECMWF has forecasted another low in the region around the 24th. May not intensify much, but will certainly prolong the rainy spell over the heartland a little longer.

Meanwhile, the highly active bay, in the last 2 weeks, has concentrated on the formation of systems around the central bay area, which subsequently cross the Indian coast on the Orissa shoreline. This has resulted in most of the rain pouring down north of Karnataka and caused a slowing down of the precipitation over the southern peninsula.
Extreme northern regions of the country too, have had no rainfall due to the absence of W.D.s. No W.D. can be expected now, for a week, as back to back lows are crossing across the central regions.
Since the systems from the bay are moving along the monsoon trough axis, that is across central India, the regions above and below the "path" can remain comparitvely "rain free."

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