Saturday, September 13, 2008

Point by Point follow-up from the write up of 9th.Sept.

1. The low from the bay crossed the A.P. coast on the 11th. and moved along the axis of the monsoon trough, and subsequently produced heavy rain along its path in Maharashtra,Gujarat and A.P. Then, on the 12th., it merged with the low over Maharashtra, and on the 13th. morning was over central Maharashtra. The happenings are a day or two later than predicted.

Temperatures in north Maharashtra came down drastically due to this. It was 23c(-7) at Aurangabad and 24c at Nasik in the day on 13th..(see map).

2.The system now seems to be moving north-west. Expected over Gujarat coast by 14th. Heavy rains have already commenced over Gujarat.

3. Now, the map also shows the heat searing on the sindh coast at 42c. Since the last 2 days its been at 42c. This may "invite" the system, at whatever strenght, to proceed towards the "heat low" created over the sindh coast.

As hoped, the system has travelled thru the deficit regions of Marathwada. The deficit in these regions is now getting wiped out, and the rain total is fast reaching the normal level.

The next forecasted low is expected in the bay by the 15th. This , is predicted to become a depression, and cross the Indian east coast. This will surely drench the northern peninsula region, with the possibility of Maharashtra and M.P. getting a major share of the precipitation initially.

Well, surely, the withdrawal of the monsoon is now pushed back. Two back to back systems from the bay, in the fag end of the season, has reversed the withdrawal as the monsoon trough has suddenly become active again.

With Typhoon Sinlaku being followed by another Tropical Storm 16W in the west Pacific, possibily we could yet see another system in the bay around the 21st. This "last moment" bursts of storms in the Pacific may prove to be a bonus for the monsoon rains. Specially when in the 1st. week of September, it almost seemed the monsoon was on its way out.

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