Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Monsoon Watch-9

The first low of 2008 from the bay is now a named cyclone (Nargis), and as of Tuesday morning was a severe cyclonic storm of 65kts winds and core pressure of 986mb.
Presently at 13N and 85.5E, the forecast models expect the storm to move northwards initially, due to a trough over Bangladesh, but soon to recurve towards the Myanmar coast, as a high ridge to its east and the trough aloft, will steer it in that direction.

The outcome of the storm is that the cross-equatorial flow in the east (bay segment) has become strong and is being pulled towards the cyclone. In the west, that is over the Arabian Sea, the cross equtorial flow is getting organised, and is of normal strenght.

The northern sub continent region continues with high day temperatures, and the entire region is now in the 42-45c range (map), with 46c as the highest on the 28th. Conditions and settings are ready for the heat low to form.

I would like to compare this year's setting with 2006.

In 2006, a bay low had developed into a cyclone, Mala, around the 27th. of April. This intensified into a severe storm, and around the 1st. May, and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar. Winds from below the equator, in the eastern segment had intensified in the bay then too. In 2006, the northern belt of the subcontinent had normal day temperatures in April, and a severe heat wave during the first 10 days of May. The heat low was then formed around the 1st. week of May and a gradient created between the pressure of the Sindh/ Rajasthan region and Southern tip of India. After 10th. May, there were a couple of W.D.'s, and the temperatures fell in the entire northern belt for a week.

The Somali current, a forerunner of the monsoon a week ahead, built up around the 19th. of May in 2006.

And in 2006, the monsoon set in on 15th. May in the Andamans, on 26th. May in Kerala, on 31st. May in Mumbai and by 2nd. June over South Gujarat !

What do you think ?

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