Monsoon Watch - 4

The day temperatures in the north Pakistan/India and central India regions have now reached the 40-42 c levels as of today. Today, 14th., the highest temperature in the sub-continent was 42c in Nawabshah (pakistan) and Rajkot (india). And with many places recording 40c -41c. as seen in the temperature readings today (Monday).

With the day temperatures now having risen in north/central India, and most parts of the country now 1-2c in the above normal range (chart above), the seasonal low has started forming. The low, of 1002 mb, is seen in the IMD MSLP chart as of 14th.

Heat wave conditions (5-6c above normal) are forecasted by the IMD around the 16th./17th. for central regions.This should be good for the further strenghtening of the seasonal low, and hasten its spreading westwards by the month end.

The line of wind discontiunity is also firmly in place now and runs from south Maharashtra down to the tip of India. With this in place, it has to stretch itself northwards, before being converted into a trough of low. The wind discontiunity will rush in easterlies from the bay, thereby bringing in the required moisture into the peninsula inland.

Both the developments are requisites of a pre monsoon scenario. But the bay requirment, formation of a pre monsoon low in the bay, is still laging, and may not materialise till the 25th. April.

With the "land part" development going on well as per schedule and fast, and the "sea part" possibly also ready by the month end, it seems the monsoon this year could be on time.
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