Friday, April 25, 2008



Monsoon Watch-8

Starting with the Bay, there are indications from the IMD and ECMRWF and other international models of the formation of the 1st. pre monsoon low. This is forecasted to form end April, and could well turn into a depression. Not many models predict its movement into the coast of India. Rather all suggest it crossing the coast of Myanmar/Thailand around 3rd. May. This could well be true, as a high aloft in the region of central India, and with a clockwise circulation aloft across the east coast of India will prevent any system in the bay from moving westwards. The water temperatures in the Bay are around the normal levels of 30-31c. Both the above are reasons for holding the system from reaching the cyclone level. The first week of May is an "on schedule" date for the pre monsoon low in the Bay.

But the mainland continues to heat and the map from IMD shows a huge "above normal" region (though not a heat wave yet). Highest today was 45c at Akola(India) and 46c in Nawabshah (Pakistan). Though not yet formed, and at 1004mb today, the seasonal heat low over the regions of Rajasthan/Sindh could well form around the 1st. week of May. For this, more day and night heating is required, especially in the Sindh regions of Pakistan and Rajasthan in India.


Required to be ready by the end of May, the seasonal heat low should be (by May end) at 994 mb and stretch from Rajasthan in the east to Arabia in the west, with Jacobabad at its centre.


The streamline map shows the wind discontinuity to be firm now in the southern peninsula. The easterlies therein bring in the required moisture in the peninsula regions. The mentioned low is also seen forming in the south bay .

All indications as yet are for the monsoon to hit the Indian regions around the due dates. That is Andaman Sea around 16th.May, SriLanka by the 25th. and Kerala around 1st. June.


1 comment:

Chris said...

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Christopher Belz, M.A.
Doctoral Student
chrisbelz@gmail.com (preferred email)
cbelz@yu.edu (school email)
Ferkauf Graduate School of Psychology
Rousso Building
Albert Einstein College of Medicine
Yeshiva University
1165 Morris Park Avenue
Bronx, NY 10461