Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Monsoon Watch - 1
The setting for this year's monsoon seems to be slightly slugglish. What should be normally seen is a rising trend in day/night temperatures, especially in northwest India, Pakistan and central India. But, with the advent of 2 W.D's in the north, the temperatures are set to fall by 2/3 c, and return to below normal levels in the concerned regions. In fact the minimum temperatures of several towns in Maharashtra are already 5/6c below the normal, with Mahableshwar at 12c (-6c).
The W.D's will be precipitating rains in the northwest and Rajasthan regions from 3rd. through 6th. April. The upper air trough (of the W.D.) is forecasted to dip right down to the 20N level. Thereby, rains/hailstorms could be expected northwards from north Gujarat and along north M.P., besides the other northern states from the 3rd. to the 6th.
This will, for now, halt the creation of the monsoon low, normally expected to start forming around Rajasthan/Sindh region by the 2nd. week of April. The pressure at sea level today in the area is 1006/1008 mb.
On the seas temperature section, the anomoly map shows the northern Bay to be a little above the normal. While the southern seas both sides of the Indian peninsular is below normal. And that is the region we are looking at for the formation of the pre monsoon low in the Bay.
The persisting line of discontinuity in the southern tip of the peninsular is the "plus" point, as it can develop into the required trough in the region. The trough in this area is required as it helps in the quick formation of a low in the Bay (as and when ready to form).
Hence, forming of the "pre monsoon" conditions, both, around the Rajasthan/Sindh region, and the Bay, is not expected to resume before 8th., at least.
Initially, it translate into the fact, that, the monsoon cannot be earlier than the scheduled date. Monsoon can set around the normal date. At least that is as the situation stands today.
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