Sunday, March 02, 2008

This blog is in continuation of my blog of 23rd.Feb on the "Global Cooling".According to the latest tabulations, this winter has been one of the coldest in 100 years in many areas of the world and it is showing up in the world's average temperature.
Now, evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped.
Source: Global ∆T °C: HadCRUT - 0.595, GISS - 0.750, UAH - 0.588, RSS - 0.629
Average: - 0.6405°C (see graph).
There was a dramatic decline in the earth's temperature since last year. I am still perplexed as to why this has not been picked up in major media outlets. Also, there is no mention of this in any major press stories. A record amount of sea ice in the Antarctic, and this sea ice story was also one that was ignored by nearly every media outlet last summer because they were focusing on the record low amount of ice in the arctic (north pole).
The cold waves were certainly was not even remotely predicted by any of the global climate models that the IPCC uses to assess future climate change.
But, why has this winter been so cold? Besides potential large scale effects such as changes in the sun or the earth's orbit which I am not well informed, the two things I can point to are La Nina and a record amount of sea ice in the Antarctic. But he year could still turn out warm of course, because we have only been through 2 months. But, if the cooler trend continues it will force many "Global Warming" theorists to re-think on their theories. And it makes you wonder about the "Global Warming" movement in general, and climatologists must head back to the forecasting computers and figure out what major piece of the climate puzzle was unaccounted for, that caused such a severe error in future projections.
Global Warming theories have always puzzled me. If there are more hurricanes/cyclones, it is because of Global Warming (GW). If there are less hurricanes, it is because of GW. If there is more rain, it is because of GW. If there is more drought, it is because of GW. If it gets really hot, it is because of GW. If it gets really cold, it is because of GW. It will interest me to see how everyone reacts to a cooler trend. Will we continue to see GW scare stories even in the face of a cooler planet? I'll be sure to keep track of it.
(Thanks Justin for genuine good inputs).


Mani said...

Hi Rajesh, I don't believe in global warming either and the news media will soon impose a limit on the amount of co2 we breat out ...

But I have observed this pattern that weather in India (at least in Kerala) has become more unpredictable...whether that is natural or man made is debatable

rajesh said...

Thanks for your comment.Kerala weather stability is very important for the ecology balance of the forests in the state.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh, as far as I understand, global warming refers to the increase in "average" temperature across the globe. As a result of this increase, the well establised weather pattern changes across the world. Hence, in some areas it might lead to record highest temperature and in some other, record lowest. Global warming does not necessarily mean that the temperature in all areas should increase. For that reason, climate change is more appropriate term to refer to this phenomena.
Right now, there is almost no doubt about scientific community that climate change is a reality. Whether it is man made is still debatable, but there is enough evidence in that direction also. Even if you lay aside technicalities, our common sense should tell us that the amount of deforstation and industialization we have done in recent years should have some effect.

rajesh said...

hi.What you say is right. Global warming means a rise in the average temperature of the globe, that is why I have indicated the fall in the average global temperature in the graph shown.Highs or lows in temperature are mentioned as meteorological interests,but which also contribute to average measurements.Only the record of the Antartica ice cap is of particular significance.