As discussed in the last blog, with the advent of a weak W.D., the maximum day temperatures over India and Pakistan have come down and now are at a level of about 2/3 c above normal. The IMD map shows this clearly. The day temperatures in the northern regions will fall to normal levels by the 11/12/13th. After the passing of the W.D., the temperatures in the north,central,Vidharbh and Gujarat regions should rise substantially from the 15th.
Contrary to this, the maps of February,below, shows a much cooler regime all over the mid east and Sub continent.
Also, the forecast for rain from this system also remains consistent, rain over the hills and Kashmir and H.P., but not much over the plains of northern India. A burst of clouds from the Arabian Sea towards the west coast and central India is seen today( Monday), as a result of a secondary low over Rajasthan. But this is expected to fizzle out in a day.
However, the easterly wave approaching the south has become a bit sluggish. This is due to a lower level "distortion" of winds in the interior south peninsular. But it will push rains into the interiors of the southern tip, and then gradually move along the coast as anticipated. To summarise, there should be rains in south TamilNadu from 11th., central and coastal TamilNadu on the 11/12th. and as the rain belt moves north-east rains along the northern T.N. coast and A.P,. coast from the 13th.