Posted 13th Night:

Outlook for Sunday 14th to Wednesday 17th:

An off shore trough along the West Coast is expected to bring good rainfall in South Coastal Gujarat, Konkan, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Later, around 15th/16th, we can expect a Low to form (BB-3) in the Bay. This will enhance rainfall in Interior Maharashtra, Saurashtra ( Heavy on 18th) and Gujarat Regions..

Mumbai:

Sunday 14th: Occasional showers, heavy at times. Gusty winds.

Monday15th/Tuesday16th/ Wednesday 17th: Frequency and intensity of rains may not vary  much  compared to Sunday rains. Heavy rains in patches. Cumulative rainfall could be 100-150 mms on Monday/ Tuesday & Wednesday.

Mumbai Lakes can get good rainfall next week, and can bolster the storage to over 35%.

Pune: Light to Moderately good showers on Sunday and Monday, With increase in rains on Tuesday 16th and Wednesday 17th, it will be a cool day at 26c.. .

Goa: Very heavy and good rainfall expected in Goa the forecasted days till 17th..around 60-90 mms/day. Seasonal total can cross the 2000 mms mark .

Sambhajinagar: Medium to heavy rains daily .. 40- 60 mms cumulative from 14th to 16th. Expecting rainfall to decrease on 17th. Should help in the standing crops situation.

Gujarat: Next 2/3 days, South Coastal Gujarat can expect moderate rainfall around 10-12 mms/day rains along the Coast. More rains intensity from Wednesday 17th.

Saurashtra will be lashed by very heavy rains Starting 17th and more on 18th.

Bharuch: Light to medium rains till Tuesday...More rains, sometimes heavy on Wednesday 17th.

Day temperatures are now aroud 32c, may get cooler by 2/3 degrees

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 Chennai SWM 2024 ( 448 mm Average )

Chennai City 395.4 mm

Chennai Airport 418.1 mm

TN state on the whole is on course towards 6th connective excess SWM season.  (2019-2024)

 13th July:Mumbai lakes at 25% Storage today

And rainfall last 24 hrs 👇

Ghat region of Maharashtra top 5👇

11th July 

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July being the wettest month of all four months in SWM , an excess July will be huge in quantum of rains

Monsoon circulation and rainfall to begin strengthening by 14/15 th July. A strong meridional shear in the vicinity of a strong monsoonal low level surge could give rise to strong low pressure systems around. Intense rainfall episodes can be expected from next week.

The upcoming active Monsoon spell could give excess rains for peninsular India and adjoining central India

 Vidharbha , Telangana, West coast especially Kokan along with western parts of MP and eastern Gujarat could be hotspots. In the entire west coast Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat could be main areas of potential intense rain episodes. Subsequently, Godavari can swell.

Compiled by Vag. Gokul

Details on Sunday here

10th July Night:

Special for Mumbai Pune and Hill Stations 

Given the tricky and confusing weather trends last few days, Vagaries is attempting to make a bold estimate for Mumbai & Pune.

Mumbai Rains to increase in the coming days?

Weather forecast till Sunday 14th July:

Westerlies will strengthen again for the west coast, along with formation of the offshore trough. So, gusty winds expected along Mumbai Coast. 

Mumbai: Rains expected to increase gradually from Thursday 11th July. Frequent showers for Mumbai city/suburbs, sometimes heavy. 

Increasing frequency and intensity even more with heavier rains possible over the weekend ( 12th/13th/14th).

 Rough estimates: Around 100- 150 mms till 11th and 225-275/ mms more over the weekend. 

If it happens, Scruz can be in comfortable surplus, with seasonal total  reaching around 1200-1300 mms by Monday.

We may see some good increase in the water levels in the lakes to around 25% -30%.

Pune: 

Light good rains during this period. 

City/suburbs on Thursday and Friday. Weekend may see moderate showers with pleasant weather.

Around 10 mm from Thursday-Friday and 20-30 mm over the weekend

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Heavy rains expected for Konkan, Goa and coastal/Ghats of Karnataka.

Hill stations such as Lonavala, Tamhini, Mahabaleshwar will see heavy to very heavy rains during this period

Above 400-450 mms in next 4 days

 

Mumbai Rains

 8th night ...11 pm ..Updated Nowcast for Pune Region