22nd July

South Gujarat lashed, (refer to Previous post)

Posted 21st July Night:

1. Heavy rainfall in UttaraKhand as Monsoon axis active.

CHIEF AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (mm): MANUAL: Chakrata-169.0, Haripur-139.0, Purola-106.0, Mussoorie-93.1, Barkot-47.0, Dehra Dun-45.1, Sama45.0, Mori-44.0, Dharchula-42.8, Someshwar-42.0, Loharkhet-42.0, Chamoli-38.8, Garud-38.0, Bhatwari-36.0, Tehri-35.4, Khatima-35.0,

Nepal ; Heavy rainfall recorded in some  stations like Anarmani  116 mms, Makhwanpur  100 mms, Rampur 66 mms, Takulkot 59 mms.

(this rainfall affects Kosi River flow into Bihar).

2. The Monsoon n Axis now moving Southwards.

Activating rainfall along West Coast, East Gujarat, Vidharbh, Chatttisgarh and M.P. till 25th.

Gujarat: Good rainfall expected in South Gujarat Region next 3 days. Surat, Bharuch and Valsad can expect rainfall in excess of 50-70 mms on 22nd/23rd.

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Mumbai: Regular monsoon days..Needs No Alerts.

Overcast skies with frequent heavy passing showers with gusty winds.. Mumbai can expect about 110-140 mms accumulated rainfall on Wednesday 22nd/Thursday23rd/Friday 24th.

Due to fairly good rainfall in city's lakes, the catchment inflow for all sides has boosted the storage to 57.75%

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Pune: 22nd/23rd/24th...Cloudy and cool days at 25c.with frequent moderate drizzles.

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Sambhajinagar: Around 30-40 mms rainfall on 22nd and 23rd. Cool days at 25c. Decrease in rains from 24th. Soil moisture conditions could be better.

संभाजीनगर: २२ आणि २३ तारखेला सुमारे ३०-४० मिमी पाऊस पडेल. २५ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानासह हवामान थंड राहील. २४ तारखेपासून पावसात घट होईल. जमिनीतील ओलावा चांगला राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.

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Goa: Some heavy showers on Wednesday, but decrease in rainfall on Thursday and Friday.

 

Thank you all for the wonderful words you wrote in our Anniversary Book. Every message means a great deal to me and will always be treasured.

The Anniversary Book and the beautiful trophy were a completely unexpected and deeply touching surprise. I am truly grateful for your thoughtfulness and affection.

I feel incredibly proud and fortunate to have such loyal, caring, and passionate Vagarians as part of this journey. Your unwavering support over the past 20 years has been the greatest strength behind Vagaries.

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart, for making this milestone so memorable. Here's to many more years together!

Vagaries' 20 years Young

 Glimpses of Our  "Vagaries' 20th year celebrations held on 18th July.

Thanks to all Vagarians for support and faith.

We missed all those not present. 

 Changing Outlook from 17th to 22nd..

The monsoon Axis agrees to move a south as WML fizzing out! 

"The Well Marked Low " has moved in and the associated trough covers East India. As the WML fizzles out, the SW winds along West Coast will gain strength and rainfall can increase along Konkan, Goa and South Gujarat Coast.

Mumbai: Outlook till Wednesday 22nd  An increase in rain frequencies from 18th or 19th as the WML loosens it's grip.

Frequent Heavy showers from 18th/19th with gusty 40-50 kmph gusts.

Pune: Occasionally receiving moderate to light drizzles after 21st. Temperatures range around 28° - 22°.

Rainfall increasing moderately in Bharuch, Surat and Valsad from 18th.

Rains continue in Odisha till 22nd. 

 Outlook / Forecast coming up by 9.30 pm IST

16th July El Nino status

El Niño is present.

 Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. 

El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.

El Niño: characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative RONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

 CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly relative Niño3.4 departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. 

These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.