Weekend outlook; 20th/21st/22nd April

Mumbai:

Dry heat gone...warm stuffy discomfort coming !

After seeing blistering heat last week at 38/39°, the next three days will witness a drop in day temperatures to 34/35°. But, with the humidity going high to almost 80%  the actual feel ( 38°c) will be more sweaty and uncomfortable. 

Warm stuffy nights at 26°c.

Pune: 

Possibility of patchy thundershowers in some areas.

Days around 39/40°c. But humidity around 55% may make it stuffy.

Above Normal nights at 23°c.

Mahabaleshwar:

At 33°c, Hot and warm by this hill station standards, resulting in a thundershower on Saturday/Sunday. 

Reasons for heavy rainfall over UAE and parts of Oman 

Clarification of some doubts, Vagaries briefly explains the reasons behind the recent heavy rains and thunderstorms which lashed UAE and Oman. 

The main reason - a strong trough in the jet stream (strong Western Disturbance, as we call these systems over India) which was strong enough to generate a low-pressure system near the surface close to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. 

This system had typical characteristics which are seen in weather systems in the midlatitudes, and so strong thunderstorms and rainbands formed near the boundary between winds from opposite directions (see below image from National Center for Meteorology, UAE).

Also, this event was well forecasted by various Global weather forecast models well in advance, therefore signifying that the natural processes were most likely governing this weather system. 

Such high-intensity extreme rainfall in this part of the world is rare but not unheard of.

Clarification on some confusion on common meteorological features over the Arabian Sea:

• A high-pressure system (anticyclone) is present in the lower levels of the atmosphere over the Arabian Sea, usually from March to May-end, till Monsoon onset. 

• The presence of this high pressure causes some southerly winds over the Oman coast, but does not give such extreme rainfall. 

• This high pressure is seen every year, but we do not see such rain events every year. 

The observed heavy rainfall event was due to the trough in the Jet stream as explained above.

Impacts on the western parts of India:

• The variation in the location and intensity of this high pressure also affects the weather for the west coast of India, by sometimes delaying the sea breeze or even setting in the sea breeze early.

 High pressures create sinking air or subsidence and are often associated with clear skies and dry weather. Such high pressure areas have caused heatwave like conditions with very dry weather and low humidity for Mumbai during February end and early March in the past years.

• There was no strong high pressure over western Maharashtra across the first few kilometers of the atmosphere, otherwise we wouldn't have witnessed thunderstorms developing over the Ghats and Madhya Maharashtra regions.
• Explained by Vagarian Shreyas

 

 U.A.E. Oman and Dubai face severe W.D.

SEE WORLD WEATHER NEWS PAGE 

UAE had surpassed all the paper records in 75 years  since 1949

They recv more than enough.

Total rainfall of 3.5 years receives in just 1.5days

Highest places received rainfall between

14.04.2024 to 17.04.02024 morning 

Khatam Al shaknah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

259.5 mm

Kalba in sharjah 

239.5mm

Al Marmoom in Dubai Al ain road

219.4mm

Wadi Al tuwa in ras Al khaimah

205.6mm

Margham in dubai

200.6mm

Saih Al Salem in Dubai

198.6mm

Ras Al Ghanadah in Dubai

197.1mm

Al faqa in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

189.1mm

Raknah and Al qattara in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)

186.1mm

Al jurf in Dubai 

185.9mm

Umm Al Ghar in Al ain(Abu Dhabi)

178.1mm

Al rowdah in Al ain (Abu Dhabi)

176.2mm

Dubai IA

142mm

Al ain IA

127.2mm

Sharjah  IA

123.8mm

Zayed IA(Abu Dhabi)

100.2mm

Ras al khaimah(IA)

48.5mm

Abu Dhabi city

91.1mm

Dubai Jumeirah

168mm

Forecast for Mumbai/Pune:

Similar weather expected for Mumbai and Pune for Wednesday 17th April. 

Mumbai: Hot daytime weather in Mumbai city and suburbs, followed by humid afternoon and evening/night. Thane district will be hotter with above 40C max.

Eastern outer townships of Thane/Raigad district may see some localized thundery buildup and rain.

Some reduction in daytime heat can be expected from Thursday/Friday with the early onset of sea breeze.

Pune: Hot daytime temperatures, followed by thunderstorms for Pune and Ghat regions.

Pune region can see similar weather even for Thursday 16th April.

Parts of Konkan can get rain/thunderstorms next 2 days in some areas (more chance for interiors near Ghats).

 16th April

Temperatures around Mumbai

Mumbai Scruz 39.7° ( April record is 42.2° on 24-4- 1952).

Colaba 35.2° ( April record 40.6° on 19 -4-1955).

Koparkhairne 43.0°, Chembur 37.7°

Pune 40.7° with hails and thundershowers 

Looking Down from Space !A Different angle of seeing the Total Solar Eclipse. Other than the one we see normally:

The Moon’s shadow swept over North America, from the Pacific coast of Mexico, through Texas, and over the Great Lakes before crossing the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland, Canada.

On April 8, 2024, millions of Americans saw day turn temporarily to night as the Moon passed between the Sun and Earth to create a total solar eclipse.

As people in the 115-mile-wide (185-kilometer-wide) path of totality looked up and saw the Moon conceal the bright orb of the Sun and obscure all but its wispy corona, Earth-observing satellites captured imagery of the Moon’s shadow as it raced eastward over North America.

About 1 million miles from Earth, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) imager on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite, captured the above views of Earth.

NASA Earth Observatory

Today..15th 

Pune : 40.8°c..with thundershowers 

Mahabaleshwar 33.0°c

Mumbai MMR👇

Mumbai and Interior in line with our weekly estimate.

------------------------------

The topic of excited discussion encouraged by the "Warming" publicity...

"Wow..really hot this year..never seen this in April..etc"....But,

Public memory is very short..👇👇👇

15th April 2016...from Vagaries blog 👇