29th June

SW Monsoon 2026 at a crucial juncture...shifting gears and entering the first major active spell of the season🌧️!

Mumbai: Rain intensity and spread to increase across Mumbai/Navi Mumbai, Thane, Palghar regions. Expecting moderate to heavy rains in this week. Chance of very heavy rains from 2nd to 4th July, occasional thunder possible.

Accumulation till 4th July could reach/exceed 350-400 mm in the city/suburbs.

With westerly winds expected to strengthen from 2nd July, interior konkan and Ghats can get much needed heavy rains.

Pune: Light to moderate monsoon showers likely, cool daytime weather. Overall between 30-60 mm possible in this week around Pune city, little heavier in western parts.

Nashik/Dhule/Nandurbar/Jalgaon districts can receive some heavy rains between 2nd and 7th July...more updates by mid-week

Gujarat: Monsoon to advance upto Surat by 2nd July, maybe till Bharuch/Baroda by the weekend (5th July). Heavy rains in south Gujarat from 1st/2nd July onwards.

By Vag. Shreyas 

 29th June:

Indian Sub Continent was warned of Severest Heat..But the effect was in Europe 

Europe  28th👇 

India👇27th

U.K. 26th👇

Germany 27th👇

 27th June

Current Scenario:

Good rainfall along trough 

Deficency in Maharashtra/Gujarat as on 27th June 

Mumbai day frequency rain last 4 crucial weeks

Mumbai rain frequency to increase from 1st July

Mumbai 

Pune rain frequency last 4 crucial weeks

 26th June

In short👇

In detail:👇

Current Scenario :

West Coast: winds currently not favourable for Monsoon activation.

Central India : Getting moderate rains from weak trough. 

Marathwada will get moderate to heavy thunder showers on 26/27/28 June. 

North India: Normally Hot.

Outlook:

Two typhoons will push a pulse in the Bay by 1st of July and Low will form by 2nd in North Bay.

This should activate rainfall along West Coast and Central India. 

Pulling the Monsoon further into Gujarat and M. P. 

Mumbai:

26/27/28 June: Passing showers, few heavy but not prolonged. Cumulative weekend rain average 30 - 50 mms.

Rainfall increasing from 30th June due to low pressure in Bay. 

Lakes will get increased rainfall from 30th June. 

Pune: Moderate Thundershowers on 27th/28th June /1st July. But rainfall decreasing after 1st July. 

Gujarat :Monsoon moving in South Gujarat by 1st July. 

Surat /Bharuch: Occasional showers from 1st July 

24th Night

Next 3 days Outlook for Mumbai.

Significant reduction in Mumbai Rainfall on 25th Thur, 26th Friday and 27th Saturday. 

Currently Mumbai Rainfall variations 200 - 300 mms. Next 3 days reduce to 40 - 70 mms per day.

No Alert.

24th June..

We have given a very apt name to our site "Vagaries of the Weather'

Mumbai, 1st day of Monsoon, no pre monsoon, no pre monsoon thundershowers..Straightaway 50% of June quota on day 1!  Few occasions when we were not able to estimate such huge amounts on day 1..

Localized mesoscale circulations cause such short heavy bursts of rain 

West coast rains again beats all models...no one expected such big amount 24-48 hours earlier

Also, abnormally warm Sea waters could have played a role in enhancing and sustaining cloud patches off Mumbai and north Konkan coast..

Any change in such extreme events can't be attributed to urbanization as such...natural climate also changes, with natural warming more moisture available...north Konkan and south Gujarat has always been the preferred region for such extreme events

No proper scientific reasoning is established  linking Mumbai city scale urbanization to large scale SWM extreme events

Just because these two entities increase doesn't necessarily mean one influences the other

Lakes level 7.94%..Rainfall: Tulsi: 263 mms, Vihar 142 mms.

Monsoon Arrives over Mumbai as a feeble Current...23rd June.

Mumbai Water Lakes at 8.07% Storage ..

Rainfall:Ratnagiri: 146 mms, Harnai:115 mms, Goa: 40 mms, Colaba IMD : 49 mms ,Scruz IMD: 12 mms

LakesLast Middle Vaitarna recieved 55 mms and Bhatsa, Modak:16 mms.