December almost over...But City still Warm.

Mumbai is facing a winter , a "warm winter'' untypical of a normal December for the city.

It has been a hot start to Mumbai's winter, with the temperatures above normal throughout the period, especially in December, averaging around 3c above normal. 

Since 3rd December this year, Mumbai has seen day temperatures above 33c ( 2/3 c above normal) on all days )as  of 29th December). The top being 35.7c ( +4c)on 24th.

The nights have averaged 21/22c in December, around 4c above normal. The coolest this year seen is 18.9c on 24th.

Thus the daily day/night average for December works out to 27c..2c above normal.

But, as people's memory is short, let Vagaries remind all that, Mumbai had a much warmer December in in 1987 when Day was 39.8c on 4th December, the Monthly warmth was 4c above the normal. In 1990,  the temperature averaged 6c above normal !

Normally for Mumbai, the winter starts with the cold winds blowing from the North, generating from a Western Disturbance system in the Northern plains and Himalayas. . But this year an "anti Cyclone" system in Central India blocked the cold winds, and brought Easterlies and South Easterly winds, which are dry and warm.

A Western Disturbance System can approach Northern India around 6th January 2024. Mumbai can then get some pleasant weather after 7th, and cooler temperatures around 16/17c. Outer townships of Mumbai can go down to 15c.

29th December

 Cyclonic circulation seen over southern Arabian Sea...two regions of convection and vorticity. 

May organize over the next day or two and can move north. Monitoring for further development.

At 12 pm  29th December, widespread fog seen covering a larger stretch over IGP region from Pakistan to Bihar. 

Foggy day for the entire region. The entire is dry with temperature inversion seen near the surface and a highly stable atmosphere in terms of -e profile. 700 mb circulation shown.

Courtesy Vag. Gokul

 27th December 

Due to lesser frequency of W.D.s thus year, much reduced snow cover seen over the Himalayas. 

Compare with the December image of 2019

 23rd December..Konkan days hotter as mentioned 

Weather forecast from Friday 22nd to Monday 25th December

Plesant nights across Maharashtra, but hotter daytime weather for Konkan.

Mumbai: Day temperature will continue to be warmer than normal (around 33C) and can rise further on Sunday 24th/Monday 25th with max touching around 34-35C. Dry heat due to easterly winds, low humidity. Nights can be pleasant with minimum temperature around 19C over the weekend. 

Thane district and interior regions of Konkan belt will see cooler nights (around 15C-16C or slightly lower). Days will be very warm (unlike December).

Pune: Days to remain around 30C and night temperature to drop till around 12C. Outskirts and rural areas maybe slightly cooler. 

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Not much change in the weather. Days will be comfortable around 29C-30C. Minimum temperature in Marathwada region likley to be in the 11C-13C range. Vidarbha may continue to see cooler nights with temperatures dropping till 9C-10C, and even lower in rural regions.

Due to the absence of a moderate/strong intensity Western Disturbance for northern states and UTs, the cool northerlies are not expected along the west coast anytime soon.

 

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