Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 4^th March to   11th  March.

1. M-1 moves across northern regions of sub-continent. Moves thru Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday and Monday.Spreads to Nepal on Tuesday, but restricted to Western regions.Kathmandu cloudy during this period. Rise in night temperatures. M-1 moves away by Tuesday.

2.  A high presuure in the Arabian Sea combined with the moving away of the W.D, NW winds continue to dominate the North-West regions and Central India. High pressure fades away after Wednesday. Till then, will bring strong W winds to Sindh coast and Kutch and Saurashtra regions.

3.   NW winds will blow into the Konkan and Interior Mah and prominenetly in Gujarat on Tuesday and Wednesday.

4.  Real rise in day temperayures will take place in Vidarbh, N.Interior Andhra and interior Karnataka from Friday.
   Days remain in the near normal range in India in the first   of  the week.Nights could be below normal in NW, Central and Western India. 

   

   

5. For Pakistan Sindh region will be dry, and heating gradually from Wednesday onwards. Hot spots likely to reach 38c by week end.

This was February 2012 in the Sub-Continent:

Today’s Martian Weather: Partly Cloudy....See Superb Mars Clouds Pic on Space News Page.




Friday, 2nd March Morning lows in Mah./Karnataka:
 
Belgaum 8.4c (-10c), Pune  8.8c (- 6c), Nasik 9.1c (-5c), Ratnagiri 14.4c (-7c), Mumbai S'Cruz  15.5c ( -4c), Panjim (Goa)  16.8c (-5c) .
 
FAQ: Will our Ratnagiri Alphonso Mangoes ripen and arrive on Time ??

Dust/sand raising winds expected again on Saturday/Sunday in Dubai..could go upto 55-60 kmph.

Officially 2012 Summer's here. Winter ends, and the sub-continent summer starts from 1st March !
In our region, the summer season starts  from down South, and as explained before, slowly creeps its way Northwards during the course of the month of March.


Well, this year, this process started quite normally and almost on schedule, I would think. 
Except for a lone 40c at Bhubaneshwar, no other place has touched the 40c mark. But, officially yes, 40c has been acheived.
An important parameter to observe this year is the weakening La-Nina. La-Nina has been the factor behind the good flow of W.D.s (during March) in 2011, and subsequently the good SWM.


This year, 2012, as yet, the La-Nina effect has kept the W.D.s coming. 
Now, we are seeing a weakening of the La-Nina event. The SOI has dropped drastically in the last 8 days, and the neutral level could come as fast as by end March.This may restrict  the flow of W.Ds and increase the heat in the sub-continent. If neutral conditions remain, we may be spared of extreme heat this summer.


Just for comparison of advent of summers the near past:
We can recollect, that in 2010, we had the onset of summer about 10 days ahead of the normal date. And by 1st. March 2010, as the IMD map shows, the heat has already moved more than half way into India.And most of the country was in the "above normal" range.

We also see the "above normal" area engulfing large portions of the country, more so the central areas.

Even 2009 had an early start to summer. An IMD map of 1st March 2009 reads the picture.


Across the border, days are heating up very gradually. Places in Sindh, the regions heating up initially, are in the 33/34c range.
Low compared to 2009 and 2010 when certain cities had shot up to 37c then.


Mumbai starts the month of March on a cool note. After a stint....I think I'll put this part on the Mumbai Page.Please see there -:))




Dear Global Warming Alarmists: We're Still Waiting for Declining Snowfall...more on Global Warming Hysteria Page.

Mumbai region cools down Thursday Morning... Cooling was anticipated in Mah and Gujarat from Wednesday for 2 days ( forecasted earlier). A weak F-4 has brought down the temperatures a bit more than anticipated..
Mumbai S'Cruz was 13.4c (Wednesday Night recorded minimum Thursday Morning). Lowest for this date ,1st March, for S'Cruz  is 15c. Mumbai Colaba was 18.4c, Pune 9.8c, Nasik 8.7c, and Ahmednagar 7.1c.

Note on official start of summer season from today will be up tonite..

Unusually Cold In Karnataka and Andhra! (Its end Feb)


Surprise ! South Interior Karnataka is facing a cold wave. Below normal night temperatures have been recorded in the region since the last 2 days, and today (Tuesday) morning saw Mysore at 11c (-8c), Hasan also at 11c (-5c) and Chamarajanagar at 12c. Medikeri bottomed 8c which is 7c below normal. Agumbe saw 10c.
In the Norhthern parts of Karnataka too the nights were very cool. Belgaum saw 13c (-4c) and Raichur was at 15c which is 5c below normal.


However, the irony is that the day temperatures are marginally above normal fro these places. In fact, Manglore soared to 38.2c (+6c), unusually high for the place, and equaling its previous high for February. But the nights were better at 21c (-2c). 


Though Bangalore shot to 35.4c (+4c) today, the nights are in tow with the rest of the state, slightly below normal. It was 16c in the city on Tuesday morning. The February record for Bangalore (city) is 35.9c and for the airport it 35.0c as the highest evr for February.


Adjoining areas of A.P. too were in the below normal range at night. Rayalseema regions of the state saw Anantpur at 15c (-6c), Cuddapah 17c (-6c) and Tirupati A.P. at 16c (-5c).

Highest in India on Monday was 38.5c at Akola. Along with Prome (Myanmar) these were the hottest in Asia on Monday.


Sunday's  "freak" 40.1c at Bhubaneshwar (freak because it was back to 37c today on Monday) just happened to "upset" my 40c "setting" for the mid week. -:)) 


Anyway, it was also very hot in Mahableshwar, the hill station being 32.6c, a good 6c above, and classified as a Heat wave condition.
Mumbai is trodding along the expected 35-18 range.


F-4 has moved completely into India on Monday, and as mentioned, the system is weak, and has precipitated very little amountds in Kashmir and H.P.Just 4 mms in Kupwara and 1 mm in Gulmarg.


Forecast for Tuesday, 28th Feb/Wednesday 29th/ and Thursday 1st March; 

Refer to point No 3, of Sunday's weekly forecast, which will be taking effect: 


The NW winds regime is definitly going to gain strength from Tuesday. Strong NW winds will sweep the entire Gujarat region and North Mah. and the Sindh coast in Pakistan, from Tuesday.
Wednesday will see the NW winds gaining more and will be gusty over Saurashtra and Kutch.

Windy (NW) on Tuesday and Gusty in Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday/ Thursday and Friday. Will keep day temperatures in the 32/33c range in Rajkot and Surat. 


Mumbai: Tuesday onwards, NW winds dominating will keep the day temperatures around 33c at S'Cruz and 30/31c at Colaba. Nights will be around 18c at S'Cruz. The next 2/3 days temperature should be in the normal range for this time, i.e. at 33c - 18c.
Pune: Almost in line to our weekly forecast put up on Sunday. Being more in the "calm" range last few days, Pune too will get NW winds from Tuesday, which will bring the days down to 34c from the current 36c. Nights, I expect will fall to 11c next 2/3 days.


Nagpur: Continues with a slight rise in the current 36-19c range for 2 more days, that is Tuesday and Wednesday. Akola or some Vid station could reach 40c mid week as expected.
Friday, stiff NW winds will lower the day temperature to 34c and Friday night will be cooler by a couple of degrees.


Delhi: The currently blowing NW winds in Delhi will sober down from Wednesday. Wednesday/thursday and friday will see a rise in day temperatures to 27/28 levels. Nights will also rise from the current 9c level to around 13c from Thursday morning.


Karachi: In the 29 - 12c range now, maybe a cooler day on Tuesday with strong W winds blowing for a day. Rise in temepratures from Wednesday to 31c. 
Sukkar has already reached 29c on Monday, almost 5 days before our forecatsed date. Not much effect of F-3 has shown a rise in the temperatures early. Should stabilise to 26/27c till Friday, after which the days will get warm again.
Islamabad will tend to warm up this week from Tuesday, gradually, till Western Disturbance M-1 arrives on Saturday, 3rd March.


A few days back, we had read an article in newspapers (from NASA ) on the "Vagaries" group on FB, about "Cloud tops dropping closer to Earth "– ..Read about it and Vagaries' views on The Global Warming Hysteria Page....

Excessive Rain in Australia and rare Tornado in Indonesia..Read on Mark's Blog.

vagaries view: Could be due to the La-Nina keeping its strength intact as yet !!

At least this week's Weekly Forecast starts off well...Wind Rain and Blowing Sand in Dubai Sunday Morning at 10 am..see pic on inter active Page sent by Jignesh from Dubai..
and more pics here of Sharjah ..

Bhubaneshwar (Orissa) touches 40.1c on Sunday, 26th Feb.2012. Becomes the first 40 of the season in India. Bhubaneshwar was was also the first place to touch 40 in 2009, on 25th Feb that year.