With the MJO turning neutral and the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea slowly showing signs of intensification, both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal branches of the monsoon are showing signs of gradual revival over the next few days. Westerlies from the Arabian Sea will strengthen, bringing rains to the west coast and Ghats and advancing the monsoon into the remaining parts of Konkan.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation (UAC) can form in the shear zone (near 700 hPa) stretching across interior Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This could bring much needed rains for interior Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh by the middle of the upcoming week.
Mumbai: Expecting a gradual increase in rainfall activity. Passing showers likely.
Few areas in MMR could witness some thundershowers.
Next 5 days cumulative rains could be around 30-50 mm average.
Monsoon onset as a weak current is likely around 26th June (+/- 1 day), when westerly winds can align well from surface till about 4 km altitude..
[Mumbai most delayed Monsoon ever was 25th June in 1959/2023>>>(Lets hope this date is kept intact)] could end up being the most delayed onset for Mumbai!]
Rainfall is expected to pick up after 27th June. June may end on a rainy note, but the deficit for the month is unlikely to get covered up.
Todays total rain= 13.5 mm at Colaba and 15 mms at Scruz. So,even at the most if we get another 120 mms in June, we land up with approx 135mms in June i.e.-75%.
Pune: Hot days with increasing humidity will give rise to convective showers and thundery developments in the afternoon/evening. Rain/Thundershowers likely till around 24th June.
Moderate-heavy rain in few areas, may not be uniformly distributed.
Monsoon onset likely between 26th to 28th June, when westerly winds align and set in over Pune region.
Konkan and Goa: Revival of Monsoon is expected. Moderate to heavy rains likely from/after 23rd June for south Konkan (Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts) and Goa.
This upcoming week can witness around 300-400 mm cumulative for south Konkan and Goa, with some localized spots seeing higher.
Adjoining Ghats can also start getting good rain after westerly winds strengthen towards the end of the week.
Raigad district could also get moderate to heavy showers this week, with coastal areas likely seeing more rain than Ghat foothills.
Marathwada and Vidarbha: Many districts would see increase in rains after 23rd June. Rain/thundershowers likely during 24th to 27th June, with monsoon onset around 27th June.
Around 60-100 mm average rain is expected in total in these regions, with eastern districts seeing more rain than western districts.
Ch. Sambhajinagar: Some pre monsoon thundershowers likely on 24th and 25th June. Monsoon onset likely around 29th June.
Total rainfall for June could be around 80-110 mm for Sambhajinagar-Jalna regions.
Gujarat: The wait for proper monsoon rains will continue till the end of June.
South Gujarat regions such as Navsari, Valsad,
Surat can get some passing showers this upcoming week.
Monsoon onset likely after 27th June.
Saurashtra region, Baroda and Ahmedabad regions could get monsoon rains only by early July.
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