8th May

Monsoon rains may commence early this year over India :

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Latest extended range forecasts from leading global NWP Modeling centres are beginning to indicate possibilities of an early Monsoon arrival over the South Asian region including India. In the next one week, rapid changes are forecast to occur in the large scale circulation pattern which includes semi-permanent features associated with the Asian Monsoon circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean. Monsoon rains could start over the Andaman and Nicobar islands by mid May and followed by an onset over Kerala during the last week of May.

Analysis of sub-seasonal scale circulation anomalies from NWP based model outputs indicate that moist equatorial waves like Equatorial Rossby waves(either propagating/quasi-stationary in nature) could start influencing weather patterns over the Indian region, which could aid in monsoon onset processes.

Constant monitoring and analysis in near real time during the next few days may give more clarity.

Article by Vagarian Gokul