🌦️ Abridged Monsoon Watch – 3 (2025):  (As on 2nd May)

1. Cross Equatorial Winds – 🟩 Normal

Winds are active in both Arabian Sea and Bay sectors; Somali SSTs still warm (30°C). Bay branch has UAC; needs further organization.
Indicator: 🟩 Normal

2. Seasonal Low (Thar Region Core Heat) – 🟥 Negative

Heating paused; core pressure still high at ~1004 mb. Needs to drop for effective pressure gradient formation. Core required at 994 mb in June to create Monsoon pull Gradient.
Indicator: 🟥 -ve

3. ENSO Status – 🟨 Neutral

ONI at -0.4, SOI at -1.7 – within neutral range. No El Niño or La Niña signals active.
Indicator: 🟨 Neutral

4. Bay of Bengal Activity – 🟥 Negative

No signs of low or storm development yet. SSTs are favorable but no trigger seen.
Indicator: 🟥 -ve

5. ITCZ / Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD) – 🟩 Normal

Positioned near equator; LWD from Maharashtra to Kerala present. Pre-monsoon activity still weak but expected to improve.
Indicator: 🟩 Normal

6. Jet Streams (200 hPa) – 🟥 Negative

Still weak and south-easterly south of 8°N. Needed: easterlies to support Monsoon flow into Andamans.
Indicator: 🟥 -ve

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✅ Parameter Summary Table (with Color Codes)

Parameter	MW-1	MW-2	MW-3
Cross Eq. Winds	🟩 Normal	🟩 Normal	🟩 Normal
Seasonal Low (Heat)	🟩 +ve	🟥 -ve	🟥 -ve
ENSO	🟨 Neutral	🟨 Neutral	🟨 Neutral
Bay Low	🟩 +ve	🟥 -ve	🟥 -ve
ITCZ / LWD	🟩 Normal	🟩 Normal	🟩 Normal
Jet Streams (200 hPa)	⬜ –	⬜ –	🟥 -ve
Overall	🟧 Slight -ve	🟥 -ve	🟨 Normal

Legend:

• 🟩 Positive/Normal

• 🟥 Negative

• 🟨 Neutral

• 🟧 Slightly Negative

• ⬜ Not Applicable / Not Active Yet

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📆 Tentative Monsoon Onset Dates (Based on Current Indicators)

• South Andamans: 19th May

• Andaman Islands: 22nd May

• Maldives: 26th–27th May

• Sri Lanka: 29th–30th May

• Kerala / NE States: 1st–3rd June

• Coastal Karnataka: 7th June

• Goa: 8th–9th June

• Mumbai & West Bengal: 12th–14th June

⚠️ Note: This is an observation-based forecast. Not for commercial use. Conditions may change quickly and are monitored in real-time.